TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122069
Played Sep 13Finished
Serhii Bului
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411117117811811
Petr Kolesnik
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Bului to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Bului above · Petr Kolesnik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Bului at 68.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Bului 8–2 Petr Kolesnik Petr Kolesnik has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bului
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Bului
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bului 1747 vs Kolesnik 1491
Bului
Wrong
both rated, 256 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bului 80% vs Kolesnik 20%
Bului
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bului 90% vs Kolesnik 30%
Bului
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bului -1 · Kolesnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Bului) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolesnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBului 1.40 / Kolesnik 2.75
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Bului)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13122069
Bului1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite85% won 45 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 31 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Kolesnik2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 18 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBului8wins
AwayKolesnik2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBului leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBului100%7 of 7
AwayKolesnik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bului7Kolesnik3n = 10Bului took 7 of 10
S2Bului7Kolesnik3n = 10Bului took 7 of 10
S3Bului6Kolesnik4n = 10Bului took 6 of 10
S4Bului4Kolesnik3n = 7Bului took 4 of 7
S5Bului2Kolesnik1n = 3Bului took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuluiKolesnikB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.334.9+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuluiKolesnikBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 209 vs 187 / 33349.3%56.2%103 / 209 vs 187 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuluiBului 1.40/Kolesnik 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.6%
Bului · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolesnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:30S. Bului4241111882P. Kolesnik47117711113
WSep 12 · 12:30S. Bului4611118793P. Kolesnik3539111112
LAug 22 · 05:00S. Bului2697100P. Kolesnik341111123
WJul 5 · 08:00S. Bului331111113P. Kolesnik219750
WJul 4 · 13:30S. Bului4013511113P. Kolesnik361111681
WMay 17 · 06:30S. Bului4261411113P. Kolesnik391112971
WMay 16 · 14:00S. Bului3811115113P. Kolesnik29551181
WApr 5 · 06:30S. Bului331111113P. Kolesnik249870
WApr 4 · 14:00S. Bului51121477113P. Kolesnik511012111172
WJan 9 · 10:30S. Bului42111011103P. Kolesnik33712861
S. Bului10
WSep 13 · 08:30M. Levytskii2.634131171S. Bului1.44111113113LSep 13 · 06:30O. Tiutiunnyk2.501111113S. Bului1.508990WSep 13 · 05:30S. Bului1.50111211113O. Torianyk2.50814661WSep 12 · 17:10M. Levytskii2.101312971S. Bului1.67111411113WSep 12 · 15:30O. Tiutiunnyk2.6311811682S. Bului1.44511911113WSep 12 · 14:30S. Bului1.571113113M. Levytskii2.2581170WSep 12 · 13:30O. Torianyk2.20101040S. Bului1.611212103WSep 12 · 12:30S. Bului1.4411118793P. Kolesnik2.6339111112WAug 22 · 10:39S. Bului1.57127117113M. Levytskii2.25101131162WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tsys3.003540S. Bului1.361111113
P. Kolesnik10
WSep 13 · 06:00M. Levytskii1.50116641P. Kolesnik2.5061111113LSep 13 · 05:00O. Tiutiunnyk2.201111133P. Kolesnik1.6189110LSep 12 · 17:40P. Kolesnik3.251091361O. Torianyk1.33121111113LSep 12 · 16:00P. Kolesnik2.7591111151M. Levytskii1.4011613173LSep 12 · 15:00O. Torianyk1.4041111113P. Kolesnik2.75116661LSep 12 · 12:30S. Bului1.4411118793P. Kolesnik2.6339111112LSep 2 · 10:52P. Kolesnik3.2512930S. Sideltsev1.331411113LSep 2 · 09:30S. Sideltsev2.00912811123P. Kolesnik1.731110114102WSep 2 · 08:00P. Kolesnik1.251111113Y. Zvolynskyi3.756840WSep 2 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.101111113N. Priadko1.678770
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