TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152980
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Cabis
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6118111181012––
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Cabis above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 54.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cabis 17–18 Jakub Pilch Michal Cabis has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cabis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-18 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabis 1822 vs Pilch 1745
Cabis
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabis 20% vs Pilch 60%
Pilch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabis 40% vs Pilch 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabis +1 · Pilch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Cabis) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cabis form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabis 1.80 / Pilch 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Cabis)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152980
Cabis1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 115 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 55 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 98
Pilch1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 30 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCabis4wins
AwayPilch6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabis66.7%2 of 3
AwayPilch71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabis3Pilch7n = 10Pilch took 7 of 10
S2Cabis7Pilch3n = 10Cabis took 7 of 10
S3Cabis2Pilch8n = 10Pilch took 8 of 10
S4Cabis3Pilch4n = 7Pilch took 4 of 7
S5Cabis2Pilch1n = 3Cabis took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCabisPilchC − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.3−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabisPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 704 vs 225 / 44852.3%50.2%368 / 704 vs 225 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabisCabis 1.80/Pilch 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Cabis · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 1 · 13:29M. Cabis48811711113J. Pilch4411611792
WAug 1 · 11:30M. Cabis50811911113J. Pilch4311611782
WJul 24 · 13:30M. Cabis331111113J. Pilch167450
LJul 24 · 10:30M. Cabis35911781J. Pilch3911611113
LJul 24 · 09:30M. Cabis37913871J. Pilch44111111113
LJul 24 · 08:30M. Cabis48611116142J. Pilch50114811163
LApr 28 · 09:00M. Cabis166550J. Pilch331111113
WApr 28 · 08:30M. Cabis4215124113J. Pilch3813101141
LApr 27 · 09:01M. Cabis28101080J. Pilch351212113
LApr 27 · 08:00M. Cabis26113481J. Pilch4181111113
M. Cabis10
WSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis1.7381111123M. Navedla2.001117101LSep 19 · 15:30D. Tomica1.73941111113M. Cabis2.0011116692WSep 19 · 14:00M. Cabis1.571111113M. Navedla2.258440LSep 14 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.851111113M. Cabis1.806330LSep 14 · 16:00M. Biolek1.6111811123M. Cabis2.203116101LSep 14 · 15:00J. Dzida1.57111113113M. Cabis2.25791551LSep 14 · 14:30M. Cabis2.00751181J. Szotkowski1.7311119113WSep 12 · 21:29M. Cabis2.101111113D. Opanasiuk1.679580WSep 12 · 20:30M. Cabis1.83111110113R. Polasek1.83581281LSep 12 · 19:00M. Cabis2.3812671172J. Dzida1.531011119113
J. Pilch10
WSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:30J. Pilch1.73511951D. Tomica2.0011911113WSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100WSep 18 · 16:00M. Grundel1.73651161J. Pilch2.0011119113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:30J. Pilch2.2510730R. Polasek1.571211113LSep 18 · 13:00J. Pilch1.83119881T. Zika1.8361111113LSep 18 · 12:30J. Pilch1.83211571P. Wawrosz1.8311411113WSep 18 · 11:00J. Pilch1.9181111113T. Zika1.80117721LSep 18 · 10:00R. Revay1.3671111113J. Pilch3.00119871
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