TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147118
Played Sep 18Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611511119611––
Jakub Pilch
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Matej Grundel at 56.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 8–8 Jakub Pilch Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Grundel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1781 vs Pilch 1715
Grundel
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 60% vs Pilch 20%
Grundel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 60% vs Pilch 30%
Grundel
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel -1 · Pilch -4
Pilch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Grundel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 1.73 / Pilch 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Grundel)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147118
Grundel1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it77% 40 of 52
Pilch2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 28 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel5wins
AwayPilch5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel60%3 of 5
AwayPilch60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S2Grundel7Pilch3n = 10Grundel took 7 of 10
S3Grundel5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S4Grundel2Pilch5n = 7Pilch took 5 of 7
S5Grundel2Pilch2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelPilchG − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.4−0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 317 vs 222 / 44453%50%168 / 317 vs 222 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelGrundel 1.73/Pilch 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 15:00M. Grundel4151541162J. Pilch511113115113
LJul 20 · 16:59M. Grundel34811781J. Pilch3711411113
LJul 20 · 15:30M. Grundel5111913992J. Pilch484111111113
WJul 17 · 16:00M. Grundel341211113J. Pilch2310670
LJul 11 · 15:00M. Grundel30117661J. Pilch4291111113
WJul 11 · 13:30M. Grundel46811115113J. Pilch4411581192
WJul 11 · 11:30M. Grundel331111113J. Pilch207490
WJul 2 · 17:30M. Grundel44611115113J. Pilch4111821192
LJul 2 · 15:30M. Grundel219660J. Pilch331111113
WJun 18 · 16:00M. Grundel3911115123J. Pilch357711101
M. Grundel10
LSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100LSep 18 · 15:30R. Polasek1.501111113M. Grundel2.507260WSep 18 · 14:00M. Grundel1.571011114113D. Tomica2.2512981162WSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113WSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162WSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113
J. Pilch10
WSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113WSep 19 · 16:00M. Cabis1.806811101J. Pilch1.9111118123WSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:30J. Pilch1.73511951D. Tomica2.0011911113WSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100LSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:30J. Pilch2.2510730R. Polasek1.571211113LSep 18 · 13:00J. Pilch1.83119881T. Zika1.8361111113LSep 18 · 12:30J. Pilch1.83211571P. Wawrosz1.8311411113WSep 18 · 11:00J. Pilch1.9181111113T. Zika1.80117721
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