TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13148736
Played Sep 18Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117112116––––
Matej Grundel
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Matej Grundel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 48 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Matej Grundel at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 8–6 Matej Grundel Matej Grundel has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Polasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Polasek
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1840 vs Grundel 1801
Polasek
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 80% vs Grundel 60%
Polasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 60% vs Grundel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek +2 · Grundel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grundel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 1.50 / Grundel 2.50
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Grundel)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13148736
Polasek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 150 of 290
Up 2–0, closes it85% 76 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it71% 105 of 147
Grundel2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back29% 8 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek6wins
AwayGrundel4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasek80%4 of 5
AwayGrundel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek5Grundel5n = 10split evenly
S2Polasek6Grundel4n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S3Polasek6Grundel4n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S4Polasek5Grundel2n = 7Polasek took 5 of 7
S5Polasek1Grundel2n = 3Grundel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekGrundelP − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.9+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekGrundelBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 920 vs 168 / 31650.9%53.2%468 / 920 vs 168 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekPolasek 1.50/Grundel 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 17:30R. Polasek4071151162M. Grundel45117115113
WSep 9 · 14:30R. Polasek43111173113M. Grundel3354111122
WAug 7 · 17:28R. Polasek4291111113M. Grundel35119781
LAug 7 · 15:30R. Polasek46115111182M. Grundel52131198113
WMay 29 · 16:30R. Polasek45121111113M. Grundel371013861
WMay 23 · 06:00R. Polasek331111113M. Grundel192980
WMay 17 · 15:00R. Polasek341211113M. Grundel2710890
WMay 17 · 13:30R. Polasek43101111113M. Grundel24125251
LMay 17 · 12:00R. Polasek34118691M. Grundel4291111113
LMay 13 · 15:00R. Polasek2511680M. Grundel351311113
R. Polasek10
LSep 18 · 17:30D. Tomica2.381112119113R. Polasek1.53710131192LSep 18 · 16:30D. Tomica2.38111110113R. Polasek1.53991231WSep 18 · 14:30J. Pilch2.2510730R. Polasek1.571211113WSep 18 · 08:58R. Polasek1.9171111113T. Zika1.80116561LSep 18 · 08:30P. Wawrosz2.0061111113R. Polasek1.73117421WSep 18 · 07:30R. Polasek1.83119114113T. Zika1.8351191192WSep 18 · 06:30R. Revay1.9181161172R. Polasek1.80115114113LSep 17 · 13:30R. Polasek1.856990T. Zika1.851111113WSep 17 · 12:00R. Polasek2.251111113J. Szotkowski1.576760WSep 17 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.8335100R. Polasek1.831111123
M. Grundel10
LSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100LSep 18 · 16:00M. Grundel1.73651161J. Pilch2.0011119113WSep 18 · 14:00M. Grundel1.571011114113D. Tomica2.2512981162WSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113WSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162WSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113
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