TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146907
Played Sep 18Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012119118411116
Daniel Tomica
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Matej Grundel at 58.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 12–10 Daniel Tomica Daniel Tomica has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Grundel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Grundel
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1844 vs Tomica 1745
Grundel
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 60% vs Tomica 80%
Tomica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 50% vs Tomica 70%
Tomica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel +1 · Tomica +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Grundel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 1.57 / Tomica 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Grundel)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146907
Grundel1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it77% 40 of 52
Tomica2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 22 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel7wins
AwayTomica3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGrundel leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel100%5 of 5
AwayTomica60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel5Tomica5n = 10split evenly
S2Grundel9Tomica1n = 10Grundel took 9 of 10
S3Grundel7Tomica3n = 10Grundel took 7 of 10
S4Grundel2Tomica2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelTomicaG − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.728.8+6.9per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 316 vs 91 / 18852.9%48.4%167 / 316 vs 91 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelGrundel 1.57/Tomica 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel2610880D. Tomica341211113
WAug 27 · 15:00M. Grundel331111113D. Tomica167450
WAug 13 · 15:00M. Grundel3961111113D. Tomica31118661
LAug 8 · 10:30M. Grundel35911961D. Tomica3811511113
WAug 7 · 16:30M. Grundel351311113D. Tomica2111550
WJul 17 · 17:30M. Grundel331111113D. Tomica205870
LJul 17 · 15:30M. Grundel3861111642D. Tomica45116611113
WJul 11 · 10:00M. Grundel341211113D. Tomica2010640
WJul 2 · 14:00M. Grundel51811813113D. Tomica45117111152
WJun 1 · 17:00M. Grundel331111113D. Tomica186930
M. Grundel10
WSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113WSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162WSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113LSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113
D. Tomica10
WSep 10 · 17:30L. Velebil1.8071191152D. Tomica1.90119119113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113LSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:30D. Tomica1.671111113F. Nadymacek2.109740WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931
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