TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152976
Played Sep 19Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119911511––
Daniel Tomica
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tomica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Daniel Tomica at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 7–5 Daniel Tomica Daniel Tomica has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pilch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Pilch
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1745 vs Tomica 1772
Tomica
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 40% vs Tomica 80%
Tomica
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 40% vs Tomica 70%
Tomica
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch +2 · Tomica +3
Tomica
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tomica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 1.73 / Tomica 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tomica)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152976
Pilch1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 48 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 33 of 48
Tomica2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog50% won 23 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back18% 3 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePilch6wins
AwayTomica4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilch80%4 of 5
AwayTomica60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch5Tomica5n = 10split evenly
S2Pilch7Tomica3n = 10Pilch took 7 of 10
S3Pilch5Tomica4n = 9Pilch took 5 of 9
S4Pilch5Tomica2n = 7Pilch took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPilchTomicaP − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.337.4+1.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 446 vs 88 / 18250.2%48.4%224 / 446 vs 88 / 182Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TomicaPilch 1.73/Tomica 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tomica · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 18 · 15:00J. Pilch49111197112D. Tomica45551111133
LJul 17 · 14:30J. Pilch2578100D. Tomica341111123
WJul 11 · 12:30J. Pilch4311712133D. Tomica4191110111
WJul 4 · 17:30J. Pilch361113123D. Tomica28711100
LJul 4 · 16:00J. Pilch311011461D. Tomica4212811113
LJul 2 · 16:30J. Pilch4481161182D. Tomica45116116113
WMar 19 · 16:00J. Pilch4111811113D. Tomica28711731
WJul 20 · 14:00J. Pilch4291111113D. Tomica38119991
WJul 10 · 17:30J. Pilch4391112113D. Tomica361181071
J. Pilch10
WSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163WSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100WSep 18 · 16:00M. Grundel1.73651161J. Pilch2.0011119113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:30J. Pilch2.2510730R. Polasek1.571211113LSep 18 · 13:00J. Pilch1.83119881T. Zika1.8361111113LSep 18 · 12:30J. Pilch1.83211571P. Wawrosz1.8311411113WSep 18 · 11:00J. Pilch1.9181111113T. Zika1.80117721LSep 18 · 10:00R. Revay1.3671111113J. Pilch3.00119871LSep 13 · 17:29R. Revay1.401211113J. Pilch2.7510970
D. Tomica10
WSep 19 · 15:30D. Tomica1.73941111113M. Cabis2.0011116692WSep 18 · 17:30D. Tomica2.381112119113R. Polasek1.53710131192WSep 18 · 16:30D. Tomica2.38111110113R. Polasek1.53991231WSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:00M. Grundel1.571011114113D. Tomica2.2512981162WSep 10 · 17:30L. Velebil1.8071191152D. Tomica1.90119119113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113LSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:30D. Tomica1.671111113F. Nadymacek2.109740WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151
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