TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152643
Played Sep 18Finished
Filip Cernota
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113117911119119
Filip Strejc
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Cernota above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Filip Cernota at 64.6%
102 points played in total.
H2H Filip Cernota 32–16 Filip Strejc Filip Strejc has won 16 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cernota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-16 in 48
Cernota
Correct
gap of 16 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernota 1761 vs Strejc 1653
Cernota
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernota 80% vs Strejc 40%
Cernota
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernota 80% vs Strejc 40%
Cernota
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernota -1 · Strejc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cernota) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernota 1.61 / Strejc 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cernota)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13152643
Cernota1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 16 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Strejc2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 46 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernota7wins
AwayStrejc3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCernota leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernota100%5 of 5
AwayStrejc60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernota5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S2Cernota8Strejc2n = 10Cernota took 8 of 10
S3Cernota4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S4Cernota4Strejc4n = 8split evenly
S5Cernota3Strejc0n = 3Cernota took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernotaStrejcC − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.839.5+2.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernotaStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 174 vs 212 / 46857.5%45.3%100 / 174 vs 212 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaCernota 1.61/Strejc 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 21:18F. Cernota44115611113F. Strejc4181111652
LAug 7 · 20:20F. Cernota31681161F. Strejc4111118113
WMay 8 · 09:25F. Cernota431311193F. Strejc36118170
WMay 3 · 09:25F. Cernota521111118113F. Strejc4337131192
WDec 5 · 16:55F. Cernota351111133F. Strejc2678110
WOct 24 · 18:55F. Cernota4161113113F. Strejc341151171
LOct 10 · 18:55F. Cernota378118101F. Strejc4211811123
WSep 26 · 22:05F. Cernota511211511123F. Strejc50146119102
WSep 26 · 21:25F. Cernota4611119153F. Strejc407911131
LSep 25 · 15:55F. Cernota3851110121F. Strejc4211512143
F. Cernota10
LSep 18 · 19:20M. Stusek1.731111113F. Cernota2.009680WSep 18 · 18:50D. Jicha2.00611111072F. Cernota1.73117512113WSep 9 · 22:30F. Cernota1.6711129113T. Vorisek2.108101151WSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113WSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113WSep 9 · 19:25F. Cernota2.20124115113J. Zlamal1.61101191172WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113
F. Strejc10
WSep 18 · 21:30F. Strejc2.001111113M. Stusek1.734940LSep 18 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2012681162D. Jicha1.611011117113WSep 18 · 18:20M. Stusek1.808850F. Strejc1.911111113LSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113WSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113LSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc1.8081080O. Kadavy1.911112113WSep 15 · 14:55L. Soucek2.201111881F. Strejc1.6191311113LSep 13 · 10:04M. Stusek1.6711411133F. Strejc2.109116111WSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek1.73117781F. Strejc2.0091111113LSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113
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