TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156328
Played Sep 18Finished
Filip Strejc
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119114––––
Martin Stusek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Strejc above · Martin Stusek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Filip Strejc 70–70 Martin Stusek Dead even across their 140 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Strejc beat Stusek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-70 in 140
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strejc 1645 vs Stusek 1699
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strejc 40% vs Stusek 60%
Stusek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strejc 40% vs Stusek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strejc -2 · Stusek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrejc 2.00 / Stusek 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Stusek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13156328
Strejc2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 46 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Stusek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 54 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it68% 43 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrejc4wins
AwayStusek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrejc66.7%2 of 3
AwayStusek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strejc3Stusek7n = 10Stusek took 7 of 10
S2Strejc6Stusek4n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S3Strejc5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S4Strejc1Stusek4n = 5Stusek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrejcStusekStrejc − StusekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.536.50.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrejcStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 469 vs 324 / 68345.2%47.4%212 / 469 vs 324 / 683Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStrejc 2.00/Stusek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 18:20F. Strejc331111113M. Stusek218850
LSep 13 · 10:04F. Strejc379116111M. Stusek3911411133
WSep 13 · 09:25F. Strejc4291111113M. Stusek33117781
WSep 11 · 18:55F. Strejc5512111110113M. Stusek4314461272
WSep 6 · 14:50F. Strejc351212113M. Stusek28101080
LSep 4 · 21:20F. Strejc2912980M. Stusek361411113
LSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc2571080M. Stusek341112113
LAug 30 · 17:25F. Strejc2510870M. Stusek341211113
LAug 28 · 21:40F. Strejc48131151182M. Stusek521161113113
LAug 28 · 19:50F. Strejc36951481M. Stusek45111112113
F. Strejc10
LSep 18 · 20:50F. Cernota1.611111911113F. Strejc2.2013711992LSep 18 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2012681162D. Jicha1.611011117113WSep 18 · 18:20M. Stusek1.808850F. Strejc1.911111113LSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113WSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113LSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc1.8081080O. Kadavy1.911112113WSep 15 · 14:55L. Soucek2.201111881F. Strejc1.6191311113LSep 13 · 10:04M. Stusek1.6711411133F. Strejc2.109116111WSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek1.73117781F. Strejc2.0091111113LSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113
M. Stusek10
LSep 18 · 20:20M. Stusek2.2571120D. Jicha1.571113113WSep 18 · 19:20M. Stusek1.731111113F. Cernota2.009680LSep 18 · 18:20M. Stusek1.808850F. Strejc1.911111113WSep 17 · 22:08M. Stusek1.8011711113P. Silhan1.91811311WSep 17 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.4091111352M. Stusek2.75119911113WSep 17 · 20:25M. Stusek1.6771211113P. Silhan2.101110581LSep 17 · 18:55T. Vorisek1.731111193M. Stusek2.0099170WSep 15 · 21:53M. Stusek2.3891211113T. Vorisek1.531110471WSep 13 · 10:04M. Stusek1.6711411133F. Strejc2.109116111LSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek1.73117781F. Strejc2.0091111113
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