TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147223
Played Sep 18Finished
Alois Kanak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
19171171012911116
Josef Toth
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlois Kanak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlois Kanak above · Josef Toth below
Set 1 · 19-17
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 113 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Alois Kanak at 54.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H Alois Kanak 9–8 Josef Toth Josef Toth has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Toth
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1195 vs Toth 1221
Toth
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 40% vs Toth 60%
Toth
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 60% vs Toth 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak -1 · Toth -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Toth) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 1.83 / Toth 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Toth)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147223
Kanak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Toth1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanak5wins
AwayToth5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanak83.3%5 of 6
AwayToth100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak6Toth4n = 10Kanak took 6 of 10
S2Kanak6Toth4n = 10Kanak took 6 of 10
S3Kanak4Toth6n = 10Toth took 6 of 10
S4Kanak2Toth2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKanakTothK − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.332.3+3.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakTothBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 250 vs 77 / 16846.4%45.8%116 / 250 vs 77 / 168Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TothKanak 1.83/Toth 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Toth · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak225980J. Toth331111113
WJul 26 · 12:58A. Kanak331111113J. Toth219840
LJul 26 · 12:30A. Kanak2410590J. Toth341211113
WFeb 19 · 21:30A. Kanak531111128113J. Toth3934141172
LFeb 10 · 09:58A. Kanak4671191272J. Toth461131110113
LFeb 10 · 09:30A. Kanak32511971J. Toth4111811113
WOct 19 · 06:06A. Kanak331111113J. Toth239950
WOct 12 · 10:00A. Kanak4211911113J. Toth31711581
WOct 7 · 10:00A. Kanak331111113J. Toth238690
A. Kanak10
LSep 18 · 11:30I. Kolenciak1.8011118113A. Kanak1.91881191WSep 18 · 10:00A. Kanak1.611191311113I. Palmi2.2081115872WSep 14 · 21:02M. Blaha1.80711931A. Kanak1.9111611113LSep 14 · 20:30A. Kanak2.7511561162M. Blaha1.40611115113LSep 14 · 19:00A. Kanak1.6710990T. Navrat2.101211113LSep 14 · 18:00R. Adamczyk1.401111113A. Kanak2.756470WSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640WSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 11:00A. Kanak1.6711711173D. Vavrecka2.108112151WSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113
J. Toth10
LSep 18 · 11:00I. Palmi1.8351111123J. Toth1.831185101WSep 18 · 10:30J. Toth2.001111113I. Kolenciak1.739930WSep 9 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.6166111362J. Toth2.201111511113WSep 9 · 12:30J. Toth2.101110911123I. Palmi1.67612118102LSep 9 · 11:00J. Toth1.9181191142I. Kolenciak1.80115117113WSep 9 · 10:00Z. Luksa1.36411971J. Toth3.0011511113LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113
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