TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13145639
Played Sep 18Finished
Alois Kanak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1189111315118117
Ivo Palmi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlois Kanak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlois Kanak above · Ivo Palmi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 104 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Alois Kanak at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Alois Kanak 7–5 Ivo Palmi Ivo Palmi has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kanak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Kanak
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1199 vs Palmi 1167
Kanak
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 40% vs Palmi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 60% vs Palmi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak +1 · Palmi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kanak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 1.61 / Palmi 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kanak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13145639
Kanak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite43% won 23 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Palmi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanak7wins
AwayPalmi3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKanak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanak87.5%7 of 8
AwayPalmin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak8Palmi2n = 10Kanak took 8 of 10
S2Kanak6Palmi4n = 10Kanak took 6 of 10
S3Kanak4Palmi6n = 10Palmi took 6 of 10
S4Kanak4Palmi1n = 5Kanak took 4 of 5
S5Kanak1Palmi2n = 3Palmi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKanakPalmiK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.034.2+4.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakPalmiBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 249 vs 55 / 13146.6%42%116 / 249 vs 55 / 131Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KanakKanak 1.61/Palmi 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak331111113I. Palmi188640
WSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak43111011113I. Palmi33712591
LAug 26 · 14:30A. Kanak49911811102I. Palmi47116117123
WNov 16 · 13:30A. Kanak341112113I. Palmi2691070
LNov 8 · 12:00A. Kanak229580I. Palmi331111113
WSep 16 · 11:00A. Kanak491110611113I. Palmi4481211582
LSep 12 · 16:30A. Kanak4511681192I. Palmi43411116113
WSep 9 · 13:11A. Kanak371111153I. Palmi3098130
A. Kanak10
WSep 14 · 21:02M. Blaha1.80711931A. Kanak1.9111611113LSep 14 · 20:30A. Kanak2.7511561162M. Blaha1.40611115113LSep 14 · 19:00A. Kanak1.6710990T. Navrat2.101211113LSep 14 · 18:00R. Adamczyk1.401111113A. Kanak2.756470WSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640WSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 11:00A. Kanak1.6711711173D. Vavrecka2.108112151WSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113LAug 29 · 21:30A. Kanak2.501176111M. Blaha1.4071111133WAug 29 · 20:30M. Stolba2.0051391182A. Kanak1.731111116113
I. Palmi10
WSep 18 · 11:00I. Palmi1.8351111123J. Toth1.831185101WSep 9 · 13:01I. Palmi1.6711912113Z. Luksa2.109111041LSep 9 · 12:30J. Toth2.101110911123I. Palmi1.67612118102WSep 9 · 11:30I. Palmi2.001311113Z. Luksa1.7311960LSep 9 · 10:30I. Kolenciak1.53411812113I. Palmi2.38119111072LSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640LSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781WSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113WAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470
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