TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142951
Played Sep 17Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611711119119411
Vitalii Sydorenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Vitalii Sydorenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 59.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 54–39 Vitalii Sydorenko Vitalii Sydorenko has won 39 of their 93 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:43What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chumak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-39 in 93
Chumak
Wrong
gap of 15 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1468 vs Sydorenko 1292
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 80% vs Sydorenko 40%
Chumak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 60% vs Sydorenko 40%
Chumak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak +3 · Sydorenko +1
Chumak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Chumak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.57 / Sydorenko 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chumak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13142951
Chumak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it65% 32 of 49
Sydorenko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 83 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChumak5wins
AwaySydorenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumak40%2 of 5
AwaySydorenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak5Sydorenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Chumak5Sydorenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Chumak6Sydorenko4n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S4Chumak7Sydorenko3n = 10Chumak took 7 of 10
S5Chumak1Sydorenko4n = 5Sydorenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChumakSydorenkoC − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.443.7−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakSydorenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 554 vs 259 / 58151.4%44.6%285 / 554 vs 259 / 581Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakChumak 1.57/Sydorenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak3712311113V. Sydorenko351011681
WAug 21 · 14:05V. Chumak4281112113V. Sydorenko351171071
LAug 18 · 17:05V. Chumak3971111462V. Sydorenko49117911113
LAug 17 · 19:05V. Chumak49911121162V. Sydorenko52117149113
LAug 3 · 15:05V. Chumak331131181V. Sydorenko4381113113
WJul 9 · 19:05V. Chumak48671113113V. Sydorenko45111161162
WJun 22 · 15:35V. Chumak4151312113V. Sydorenko4011111081
LJun 18 · 18:35V. Chumak4311781162V. Sydorenko51911119113
WJun 16 · 15:35V. Chumak4211119113V. Sydorenko37891191
LJun 10 · 15:35V. Chumak50117121282V. Sydorenko504111014113
V. Chumak10
WSep 17 · 17:35V. Leonov1.83137491V. Chumak1.83111111113WSep 17 · 15:35A. Azarov3.50911111152V. Chumak1.28111358113WSep 17 · 14:35V. Chumak2.2512811113D. Boltenkov1.571011941LSep 17 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.38101111123V. Chumak1.531248101WSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840LSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:55V. Chumak1.331111123A. Azarov3.2599100LSep 10 · 15:55V. Sharpai1.73911511113V. Chumak2.0011411792LSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak2.385101181D. Boltenkov1.5311125113WSep 7 · 19:05V. Chumak2.20118911113V. Sharpai1.6161111872
V. Sydorenko10
WSep 17 · 18:05V. Sydorenko2.631111113D. Boltenkov1.449790LSep 17 · 16:05Y. Bielokon1.8371211113V. Sydorenko1.831110391WSep 17 · 14:05A. Azarov1.61119591V. Sydorenko2.2081111113LSep 17 · 13:05V. Leonov1.73111111113V. Sydorenko2.00134661LSep 14 · 19:05V. Sharpai1.281111133V. Sydorenko3.5087110LSep 14 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.367111011113V. Sydorenko3.0011712372LSep 14 · 16:35I. Elfemov1.5011511113V. Sydorenko2.50711691LSep 14 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.531111113V. Sydorenko2.382840WSep 14 · 12:35O. Korobov1.251110711112V. Sydorenko3.75912114133WSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123
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