TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142894
Played Sep 17Finished
Viktor Leonov
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311711411911––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViktor Leonov above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Leonov 4–5 Valentyn Chumak Viktor Leonov has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chumak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonov 1374 vs Chumak 1459
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonov 40% vs Chumak 60%
Chumak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonov 70% vs Chumak 50%
Leonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonov -2 · Chumak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chumak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonov 1.83 / Chumak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chumak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13142894
Leonov1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Chumak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLeonov4wins
AwayChumak5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderChumak leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonov75%3 of 4
AwayChumak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonov4Chumak5n = 9Chumak took 5 of 9
S2Leonov4Chumak5n = 9Chumak took 5 of 9
S3Leonov6Chumak3n = 9Leonov took 6 of 9
S4Leonov3Chumak2n = 5Leonov took 3 of 5
S5Leonov1Chumak3n = 4Chumak took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricLeonovChumakL − CBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match37.336.9+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonovChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 139 vs 284 / 55361.2%51.4%85 / 139 vs 284 / 553Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakLeonov 1.83/Chumak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LApr 1 · 13:35V. Leonov511111111082V. Chumak50771312113
LMar 13 · 18:55V. Leonov3958111142V. Chumak39111133113
WFeb 22 · 20:55V. Leonov331111113V. Chumak249960
LFeb 20 · 16:35V. Leonov2513570V. Chumak371511113
LFeb 13 · 15:35V. Leonov46124131162V. Chumak541411117113
LFeb 6 · 14:35V. Leonov2569100V. Chumak341111123
WJan 30 · 20:35V. Leonov3861111103V. Chumak29116571
WJan 19 · 16:05V. Leonov32111293V. Chumak2461080
WJan 12 · 20:55V. Leonov47117117113V. Chumak4171151172
V. Leonov10
WSep 17 · 18:35A. Azarov1.61108111452V. Leonov2.201211812113LSep 17 · 16:35V. Leonov2.38115891D. Boltenkov1.5381111113LSep 17 · 15:05V. Leonov2.255930Y. Bielokon1.571111113WSep 17 · 13:05V. Leonov1.73111111113V. Sydorenko2.00134661LSep 16 · 19:05H. Buianover4.5011119113V. Leonov1.17961191WSep 16 · 18:05M. Karelov3.406960V. Leonov1.301111113WSep 16 · 16:35V. Lukianevych1.73712111272V. Leonov2.001114110113WSep 16 · 14:35V. Reva3.509330V. Leonov1.281111113WSep 16 · 12:35A. Sydorenko2.631110861V. Leonov1.4441211113WSep 9 · 18:35V. Leonov1.531311113A. Sydorenko2.3811560
V. Chumak10
WSep 17 · 15:35A. Azarov3.50911111152V. Chumak1.28111358113WSep 17 · 14:35V. Chumak2.2512811113D. Boltenkov1.571011941LSep 17 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.38101111123V. Chumak1.531248101WSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840LSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:55V. Chumak1.331111123A. Azarov3.2599100LSep 10 · 15:55V. Sharpai1.73911511113V. Chumak2.0011411792LSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak2.385101181D. Boltenkov1.5311125113WSep 7 · 19:05V. Chumak2.20118911113V. Sharpai1.6161111872LSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112
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