TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13140691
Played Sep 16Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114811116113––
Andrii Lifanov
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 65 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 1–0 Andrii Lifanov Andrii Lifanov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stepanchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1463 vs Lifanov 1453
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 60% vs Lifanov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 60% vs Lifanov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk +3 · Lifanov -2
Stepanchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Stepanchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lifanov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.57 / Lifanov 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13140691
Stepanchuk1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 79 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it65% 51 of 78
Lifanov2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 19 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStepanchuk1wins
AwayLifanov0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStepanchukLifanovS − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.041.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 614 vs 212 / 38147.9%55.6%294 / 614 vs 212 / 381Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukStepanchuk 1.57/Lifanov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMar 11 · 15:55Y. Stepanchuk501171110113A. Lifanov4161161262
Y. Stepanchuk10
WSep 16 · 15:55Y. Stepanchuk1.6761113113P. Ishchyk2.101181191LSep 16 · 13:55Y. Stepanchuk1.44118961D. Us2.6361111113WSep 16 · 13:54Y. Stepanchuk1.831182V. Slabyshev1.83960WSep 10 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk1.8011118113D. Kim1.91571181LSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.91912211113Y. Stepanchuk1.80111011792LSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk1.67111141062M. Fomin2.10361112113LSep 9 · 23:35M. Skliar3.40611113113Y. Stepanchuk1.3011891122WSep 9 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91111011113H. Kulishov1.80712591LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961
A. Lifanov10
LSep 16 · 15:25D. Us1.67118133113A. Lifanov2.10911111192LSep 16 · 13:24A. Peretiatko1.7311119123A. Lifanov2.008511101WSep 15 · 19:05A. Yakovenko1.808490A. Lifanov1.911111113WSep 15 · 18:05I. Elfemov2.505930A. Lifanov1.501111113WSep 15 · 16:35F. Chashchin3.00912118122A. Lifanov1.361110511143LSep 15 · 14:35V. Hainiuk3.001111133A. Lifanov1.3649110LSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942LSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840WSep 10 · 18:55A. Azarov3.255590A. Lifanov1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:25V. Sharpai1.6761111382A. Lifanov2.10119811113
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