TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101207
Played Sep 10Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115117811118––
Dmitriy Kim
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmitriy Kim to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Dmitriy Kim below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Dmitriy Kim at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 53–52 Dmitriy Kim Dmitriy Kim has won 52 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:44What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stepanchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-52 in 105
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1440 vs Kim 1533
Kim
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 20% vs Kim 60%
Kim
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 30% vs Kim 60%
Kim
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk -3 · Kim -1
Stepanchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kim)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.80 / Kim 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kim)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13101207
Stepanchuk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 89 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it70% 59 of 84
Kim1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 151 of 331
Down 0–1, comes back34% 70 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk3wins
AwayKim7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKim leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayKim85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk3Kim7n = 10Kim took 7 of 10
S2Stepanchuk3Kim7n = 10Kim took 7 of 10
S3Stepanchuk4Kim6n = 10Kim took 6 of 10
S4Stepanchuk3Kim4n = 7Kim took 4 of 7
S5Stepanchuk2Kim2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukKimS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.939.9−4.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukKimBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 618 vs 487 / 101147.6%48.2%294 / 618 vs 487 / 1011Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KimStepanchuk 1.80/Kim 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kim · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk—861191D. Kim—11113113
LAug 31 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk—81271162D. Kim—1110119113
WAug 26 · 23:05Y. Stepanchuk—711119113D. Kim—11891172
LAug 19 · 15:55Y. Stepanchuk—8670D. Kim—1111113
WAug 17 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk—119711113D. Kim—61111772
LAug 14 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk—1081131D. Kim—12117113
LAug 10 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk—11114972D. Kim—571111113
LAug 5 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk—6880D. Kim—1111113
LAug 4 · 04:05Y. Stepanchuk—37110D. Kim—1111133
WJul 31 · 01:33Y. Stepanchuk—11911143D. Kim—5118121
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.91912211113Y. Stepanchuk1.80111011792LSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk1.67111141062M. Fomin2.10361112113LSep 9 · 23:35M. Skliar3.40611113113Y. Stepanchuk1.3011891122WSep 9 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91111011113H. Kulishov1.80712591LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113
D. Kim10
LSep 10 · 02:35M. Fomin2.20861111113D. Kim1.6111118992WSep 10 · 01:05M. Skliar2.501210111182D. Kim1.50141299113LSep 9 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.8391111113D. Kim1.83117881WSep 9 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov1.8091390D. Kim1.911115113WSep 8 · 03:35D. Kim1.6111129113M. Fomin2.206101171WSep 8 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.73115581D. Kim2.0091111113WSep 8 · 24:35D. Kim2.0021111113A. Peretiatko1.73113291LSep 7 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.801181111113D. Kim1.9113116862WSep 7 · 22:05D. Kim1.80101311113D. Us1.911211771WSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113
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