TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136564
Played Sep 16Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116811911611––
Danylo Us
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Danylo Us below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 64.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 29–18 Danylo Us Danylo Us has won 18 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stepanchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-18 in 47
Stepanchuk
Wrong
gap of 11 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1474 vs Us 1399
Stepanchuk
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Us 0%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 50% vs Us 30%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk +2 · Us -5
Us
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stepanchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Us form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.44 / Us 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13136564
Stepanchuk1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 79 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it65% 51 of 78
Us2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk8wins
AwayUs2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk100%4 of 4
AwayUs33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk4Us6n = 10Us took 6 of 10
S2Stepanchuk9Us1n = 10Stepanchuk took 9 of 10
S3Stepanchuk7Us3n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S4Stepanchuk4Us4n = 8split evenly
S5Stepanchuk3Us1n = 4Stepanchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukUsS − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.936.0+5.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukUsBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 614 vs 201 / 47848.1%42.1%295 / 614 vs 201 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukStepanchuk 1.44/Us 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Us won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk51911119113D. Us4111461192
WAug 10 · 02:35Y. Stepanchuk43111011113D. Us27412561
LAug 6 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk30911731D. Us4011711113
WJul 6 · 23:05Y. Stepanchuk49111395113D. Us47811111162
WJun 16 · 21:35Y. Stepanchuk341111123D. Us2055100
LJun 9 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk4271111852D. Us46118511113
WJun 2 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk51911911113D. Us4911911992
WMay 15 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk4281211113D. Us321110741
WMay 5 · 19:25Y. Stepanchuk361112133D. Us27610110
WApr 26 · 04:05Y. Stepanchuk4181111113D. Us31116771
Y. Stepanchuk10
WSep 16 · 17:25Y. Stepanchuk1.5711811113A. Lifanov2.25411631WSep 16 · 17:25Y. Stepanchuk2.001111113A. Peretiatko1.737860WSep 16 · 15:55Y. Stepanchuk1.6761113113P. Ishchyk2.101181191WSep 16 · 13:54Y. Stepanchuk1.831182V. Slabyshev1.83960WSep 10 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk1.8011118113D. Kim1.91571181LSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.91912211113Y. Stepanchuk1.80111011792LSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk1.67111141062M. Fomin2.10361112113LSep 9 · 23:35M. Skliar3.40611113113Y. Stepanchuk1.3011891122WSep 9 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91111011113H. Kulishov1.80712591LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113
D. Us10
WSep 16 · 16:55P. Ishchyk2.25911111172D. Us1.57119135113LSep 16 · 16:25A. Peretiatko2.381011811113D. Us1.5312511852WSep 16 · 15:25D. Us1.67118133113A. Lifanov2.10911111192LSep 9 · 04:05S. Pitsyk1.44111210113D. Us2.637101241LSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113LSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 22:35D. Rehotun1.671111113D. Us2.108990LSep 8 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi1.67102111113D. Us2.101219661LSep 8 · 04:05D. Us1.671061171A. Peretiatko2.1012118113WSep 8 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111711472D. Us2.20611211113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.