TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136514
Played Sep 16Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118116––––
Andrii Peretiatko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Andrii Peretiatko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 41–32 Andrii Peretiatko Andrii Peretiatko has won 32 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:34What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Peretiatko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-32 in 73
Stepanchuk
Correct
gap of 9 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1460 vs Peretiatko 1448
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 60% vs Peretiatko 80%
Peretiatko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 50% vs Peretiatko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk +1 · Peretiatko +3
Peretiatko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Peretiatko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Peretiatko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 2.00 / Peretiatko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Peretiatko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136514
Stepanchuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 35 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Peretiatko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 70 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it71% 54 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk5wins
AwayPeretiatko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk75%3 of 4
AwayPeretiatko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk4Peretiatko6n = 10Peretiatko took 6 of 10
S2Stepanchuk7Peretiatko3n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S3Stepanchuk3Peretiatko7n = 10Peretiatko took 7 of 10
S4Stepanchuk5Peretiatko1n = 6Stepanchuk took 5 of 6
S5Stepanchuk1Peretiatko2n = 3Peretiatko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukPeretiatkoS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.535.0+1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukPeretiatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 615 vs 355 / 76748%46.3%295 / 615 vs 355 / 767Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PeretiatkoStepanchuk 2.00/Peretiatko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Peretiatko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk50911101192A. Peretiatko43112127113
LAug 31 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk219480A. Peretiatko331111113
WAug 27 · 02:35Y. Stepanchuk47714411113A. Peretiatko46111211932
LAug 24 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk28211781A. Peretiatko4211911113
WAug 18 · 20:25Y. Stepanchuk331111113A. Peretiatko227690
WAug 16 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk331111113A. Peretiatko169610
LAug 14 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk5111991392A. Peretiatko539111111113
WAug 9 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk4111118113A. Peretiatko25451151
WAug 5 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk45111211113A. Peretiatko371310681
LAug 4 · 02:35Y. Stepanchuk167540A. Peretiatko331111113
Y. Stepanchuk10
WSep 16 · 17:25Y. Stepanchuk1.5711811113A. Lifanov2.25411631WSep 16 · 15:55Y. Stepanchuk1.6761113113P. Ishchyk2.101181191LSep 16 · 13:55Y. Stepanchuk1.44118961D. Us2.6361111113WSep 16 · 13:54Y. Stepanchuk1.831182V. Slabyshev1.83960WSep 10 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk1.8011118113D. Kim1.91571181LSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.91912211113Y. Stepanchuk1.80111011792LSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk1.67111141062M. Fomin2.10361112113LSep 9 · 23:35M. Skliar3.40611113113Y. Stepanchuk1.3011891122WSep 9 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91111011113H. Kulishov1.80712591LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113
A. Peretiatko10
LSep 16 · 17:55A. Peretiatko1.8051590P. Ishchyk1.911117113WSep 16 · 16:25A. Peretiatko2.381011811113D. Us1.5312511852WSep 16 · 14:54A. Peretiatko1.7311911113V. Slabyshev2.00911841WSep 16 · 13:24A. Peretiatko1.7311119123A. Lifanov2.008511101LSep 14 · 19:25A. Peretiatko1.8381111832M. Polysynskyi1.83117811113WSep 14 · 17:55A. Peretiatko2.2551111113P. Ishchyk1.57119961LSep 14 · 16:25A. Peretiatko1.677790D. Kim2.101111113LSep 14 · 14:55A. Peretiatko1.676650M. Fomin2.101111113LSep 14 · 13:25A. Peretiatko1.4091140M. Skliar2.751113113WSep 11 · 03:35M. Fomin1.837790A. Peretiatko1.831111113
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