TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095380
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Pitsyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11712101012114––
Danylo Us
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:39 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Pitsyk to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Pitsyk above · Danylo Us below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Serhii Pitsyk at 65.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Pitsyk 16–17 Danylo Us Serhii Pitsyk has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pitsyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-17 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pitsyk 1582 vs Us 1391
Pitsyk
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pitsyk 60% vs Us 0%
Pitsyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pitsyk 60% vs Us 40%
Pitsyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pitsyk +2 · Us -5
Us
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Pitsyk) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Us form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPitsyk 1.44 / Us 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Pitsyk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095380
Pitsyk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 118 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it79% 85 of 107
Us2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 56 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePitsyk6wins
AwayUs4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPitsyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePitsyk100%5 of 5
AwayUs80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pitsyk5Us5n = 10split evenly
S2Pitsyk5Us5n = 10split evenly
S3Pitsyk8Us2n = 10Pitsyk took 8 of 10
S4Pitsyk4Us1n = 5Pitsyk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPitsykUsP − UBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.5+1.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPitsykUsBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 593 vs 202 / 48454%41.7%320 / 593 vs 202 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PitsykPitsyk 1.44/Us 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Pitsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pitsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 14:55S. Pitsyk—1211113D. Us—10870
WAug 10 · 24:35S. Pitsyk—101111113D. Us—126661
WAug 4 · 19:25S. Pitsyk—121011113D. Us—1012761
LJul 3 · 03:05S. Pitsyk—67120D. Us—1111143
LJun 18 · 19:55S. Pitsyk—31111982D. Us—117911113
WJun 17 · 01:05S. Pitsyk—1111113D. Us—8560
WJun 8 · 13:25S. Pitsyk—151011113D. Us—1312981
WJun 3 · 03:35S. Pitsyk—1612113D. Us—141090
LMay 28 · 13:25S. Pitsyk—8560D. Us—1111113
LApr 15 · 22:35S. Pitsyk—105111342D. Us—1211811113
S. Pitsyk10
WSep 9 · 02:05S. Khandetskyi1.831181141S. Pitsyk1.8313116113WSep 9 · 24:05D. Rehotun1.9177111192S. Pitsyk1.80111187113LSep 8 · 23:05S. Pitsyk1.83911981O. Naida1.8311911113LSep 8 · 22:05K. Hrynenko1.441111113S. Pitsyk2.636740WSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 02:05S. Pitsyk1.911111113H. Kulishov1.806880LSep 7 · 01:05S. Pitsyk1.61135941A. Peretiatko2.20111111113WSep 6 · 23:35S. Pitsyk1.2891111113M. Skliar3.50119431LSep 6 · 21:35S. Pitsyk1.5013571162D. Kim2.501111118113WSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113
D. Us10
LSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113LSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 22:35D. Rehotun1.671111113D. Us2.108990LSep 8 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi1.67102111113D. Us2.101219661LSep 8 · 04:05D. Us1.671061171A. Peretiatko2.1012118113WSep 8 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111711472D. Us2.20611211113WSep 8 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.57111011342D. Us2.25712911113WSep 7 · 23:05D. Us2.101111133M. Fomin1.6799110LSep 7 · 22:05D. Kim1.80101311113D. Us1.911211771WSep 3 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111116982D. Us2.20441111113
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