TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140656
Played Sep 17Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811911––––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 59.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 65–74 Michal Chalupa Zbynek Pagac has won 65 of their 139 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:52What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
65-74 in 139
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 9 in 139, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1708 vs Chalupa 1647
Pagac
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 100% vs Chalupa 20%
Pagac
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 80% vs Chalupa 40%
Pagac
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac +5 · Chalupa -2
Pagac
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.25 / Chalupa 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140656
Pagac2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 97 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Chalupa1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 113 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac1wins
AwayChalupa9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChalupa100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S2Pagac5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Pagac2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Pagac5Chalupa2n = 7Pagac took 5 of 7
S5Pagac0Chalupa5n = 5Chalupa took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacChalupaP − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.941.7−6.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 672 vs 380 / 72347.9%52.6%322 / 672 vs 380 / 723Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaPagac 2.25/Chalupa 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 18:30Z. Pagac32911481M. Chalupa4111811113
WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac4111712113M. Chalupa344111091
LSep 3 · 21:30Z. Pagac4261181162M. Chalupa46119114113
LSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac44811411102M. Chalupa50118118123
LSep 1 · 19:30Z. Pagac152760M. Chalupa331111113
LAug 31 · 16:59Z. Pagac156270M. Chalupa331111113
LAug 31 · 16:30Z. Pagac4291171142M. Chalupa48118117113
LAug 26 · 21:30Z. Pagac2391040M. Chalupa341112113
LAug 26 · 20:30Z. Pagac49129117102M. Chalupa511011711123
LAug 25 · 19:00Z. Pagac46911101152M. Chalupa47115128113
Z. Pagac10
WSep 17 · 18:00M. Holub2.208850Z. Pagac1.611111113WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380WSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac1.5361111113D. Unzeitig2.38117891WSep 17 · 15:30R. Skacelik2.2511881132Z. Pagac1.57711119113WSep 17 · 14:00Z. Pagac1.3091311113J. Schwan3.401111511WSep 16 · 17:29R. Hudeczek1.50119761Z. Pagac2.5091111113LSep 16 · 16:00R. Hudeczek1.6781111113Z. Pagac2.10119481WSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub2.10116111182Z. Pagac1.67131189113WSep 16 · 14:30Z. Pagac2.001111113T. Kypr1.739860LSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570
M. Chalupa10
WSep 17 · 20:00M. Holub2.25611951M. Chalupa1.5711811113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.508950T. Kypr2.501111113LSep 13 · 17:00M. Chalupa1.8567120D. Szotek1.851111143WSep 13 · 16:00M. Chalupa1.8311911123R. Hudeczek1.837114101LSep 13 · 15:30D. Szotek2.001115113M. Chalupa1.7391380LSep 13 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.53121112462Z. Pagac2.381061411113WSep 10 · 20:58M. Chalupa1.734111111113D. Szotek2.0011621342LSep 10 · 20:00V. Burdik1.53111011143M. Chalupa2.388129121WSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek1.91127921M. Chalupa1.80101111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.679118101L. Kern2.1011711123
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