TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135545
Played Sep 16Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118116––––
Tomas Kypr
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kypr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Tomas Kypr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Kypr at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 3–3 Tomas Kypr Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:38What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kypr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1597 vs Kypr 1695
Kypr
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 40% vs Kypr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 60% vs Kypr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -1 · Kypr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kypr) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kypr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.00 / Kypr 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Kypr)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135545
Pagac2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 99 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Kypr1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 34 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePagac3wins
AwayKypr3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac66.7%2 of 3
AwayKypr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac3Kypr3n = 6split evenly
S2Pagac4Kypr2n = 6Pagac took 4 of 6
S3Pagac1Kypr5n = 6Kypr took 5 of 6
S4Pagac3Kypr3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPagacKyprP − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.539.8+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacKyprBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 663 vs 61 / 11147.4%55%314 / 663 vs 61 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyprPagac 2.00/Kypr 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Kypr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 15 · 14:30Z. Pagac4011117113T. Kypr32961161
WSep 11 · 17:30Z. Pagac49711611143T. Kypr45113118122
LSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac41149991T. Kypr45121111113
WSep 10 · 21:28Z. Pagac43111110113T. Kypr28661241
LSep 10 · 20:00Z. Pagac31813551T. Kypr44111111113
LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac399713101T. Kypr45111111123
Z. Pagac10
WSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub2.10116111182Z. Pagac1.67131189113LSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570WSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113LSep 15 · 15:30Z. Pagac3.257590L. Kern1.331111113WSep 15 · 14:30T. Kypr1.61961161Z. Pagac2.2011117113LSep 13 · 17:29Z. Pagac2.005660R. Hudeczek1.731111113WSep 13 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.101411113D. Szotek1.6712540LSep 13 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.0011531132R. Hudeczek1.73811117113WSep 13 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.53121112462Z. Pagac2.381061411113WSep 12 · 13:00Z. Pagac1.5711811113M. Bereiter2.25811871
T. Kypr10
LSep 16 · 15:30T. Kypr2.1071211362R. Hudeczek1.671110711113WSep 15 · 16:58T. Kypr1.53711611113L. Kern2.3811211792WSep 15 · 16:00L. Kern2.63117961T. Kypr1.4481111113LSep 15 · 15:00M. Holub2.50414119123T. Kypr1.501112811102LSep 15 · 14:30T. Kypr1.61961161Z. Pagac2.2011117113LSep 11 · 17:30T. Kypr1.55113118122Z. Pagac2.30711611143WSep 11 · 16:00M. Holub2.2591111482T. Kypr1.57118811113WSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.10149991T. Kypr1.67121111113WSep 11 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8311611113D. Unzeitig1.83811961LSep 10 · 21:28T. Kypr1.53661241Z. Pagac2.38111110113
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