TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135415
Played Sep 16Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113611118119811
Zbynek Pagac
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:18 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 99 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 64.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 22–43 Zbynek Pagac Marek Holub has won 22 of their 65 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-43 in 65
Pagac
Correct
gap of 21 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1554 vs Pagac 1628
Pagac
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Pagac 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Pagac 60%
Pagac
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -1 · Pagac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.10 / Pagac 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Pagac)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135415
Holub2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 76 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Pagac1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 116 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it79% 77 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub5wins
AwayPagac5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub66.7%4 of 6
AwayPagac75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub6Pagac4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Holub6Pagac4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub4Pagac6n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S4Holub2Pagac4n = 6Pagac took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubPagacH − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.031.9+2.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 329 vs 315 / 66446.8%47.4%154 / 329 vs 315 / 664Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacHolub 2.10/Pagac 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub331111113Z. Pagac208570
LSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub30117661Z. Pagac4181111113
LSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub361181071Z. Pagac3951112113
LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub34712691Z. Pagac43111011113
WSep 1 · 18:30M. Holub331111113Z. Pagac121290
WAug 31 · 14:00M. Holub53991311113Z. Pagac36111111212
LAug 25 · 17:00M. Holub36714781Z. Pagac45111211113
WAug 25 · 15:00M. Holub4111118113Z. Pagac29451191
LAug 24 · 13:00M. Holub115150Z. Pagac331111113
WAug 24 · 11:30M. Holub331111113Z. Pagac219480
M. Holub10
LSep 16 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.6711611113M. Holub2.10511691WSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570LSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113WSep 15 · 15:00M. Holub2.50414119123T. Kypr1.501112811102WSep 15 · 14:00L. Kern1.505380M. Holub2.501111113LSep 11 · 17:00D. Unzeitig2.00111311113M. Holub1.70815861LSep 11 · 16:00M. Holub2.2591111482T. Kypr1.57118811113LSep 11 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.50114511113M. Holub1.5061111532LSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112
Z. Pagac10
WSep 16 · 14:30Z. Pagac2.001111113T. Kypr1.739860LSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570WSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113LSep 15 · 15:30Z. Pagac3.257590L. Kern1.331111113WSep 15 · 14:30T. Kypr1.61961161Z. Pagac2.2011117113LSep 13 · 17:29Z. Pagac2.005660R. Hudeczek1.731111113WSep 13 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.101411113D. Szotek1.6712540LSep 13 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.0011531132R. Hudeczek1.73811117113WSep 13 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.53121112462Z. Pagac2.381061411113WSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113
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