TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13119491
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101161214411611
Zbynek Pagac
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 73–65 Zbynek Pagac Zbynek Pagac has won 65 of their 138 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:56What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-65 in 138
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 8 in 138, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1744 vs Pagac 1580
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 60% vs Pagac 80%
Pagac
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 80% vs Pagac 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Pagac +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.53 / Pagac 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13119491
Chalupa1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 115 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Pagac2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 97 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa9wins
AwayPagac1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa100%8 of 8
AwayPagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa8Pagac2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S2Chalupa6Pagac4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa8Pagac2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Chalupa1Pagac5n = 6Pagac took 5 of 6
S5Chalupa5Pagac0n = 5Chalupa took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaPagacC − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.933.6+7.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 722 vs 310 / 65552.9%47.3%382 / 722 vs 310 / 655Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.53/Pagac 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 15:00M. Chalupa344111091Z. Pagac4111712113
WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa46119114113Z. Pagac4261181162
WSep 3 · 19:00M. Chalupa50118118123Z. Pagac44811411102
WSep 1 · 19:30M. Chalupa331111113Z. Pagac152760
WAug 31 · 16:59M. Chalupa331111113Z. Pagac156270
WAug 31 · 16:30M. Chalupa48118117113Z. Pagac4291171142
WAug 26 · 21:30M. Chalupa341112113Z. Pagac2391040
WAug 26 · 20:30M. Chalupa511011711123Z. Pagac49129117102
WAug 25 · 19:00M. Chalupa47115128113Z. Pagac46911101152
WAug 25 · 16:30M. Chalupa331111113Z. Pagac196940
M. Chalupa10
WSep 10 · 20:58M. Chalupa1.734111111113D. Szotek2.0011621342LSep 10 · 20:00V. Burdik1.53111011143M. Chalupa2.388129121WSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek1.91127921M. Chalupa1.80101111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.679118101L. Kern2.1011711123WSep 9 · 21:29M. Chalupa1.9111119133R. Hudeczek1.809911111WSep 9 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.83951111133R. Hudeczek1.83111157112WSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113
Z. Pagac10
WSep 12 · 13:00Z. Pagac1.5711811113M. Bereiter2.25811871WSep 12 · 12:00Z. Pagac1.671311133M. Bereiter2.10119110LSep 12 · 11:30A. Walek2.201111113Z. Pagac1.618870WSep 12 · 10:00Z. Pagac1.4461112113D. Unzeitig2.631181071WSep 11 · 17:30T. Kypr1.55113118122Z. Pagac2.30711611143WSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.571111113D. Unzeitig2.258680LSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.10149991T. Kypr1.67121111113WSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113WSep 10 · 21:28T. Kypr1.53661241Z. Pagac2.38111110113LSep 10 · 20:00T. Kypr1.67111111113Z. Pagac2.10813551
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