TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104989
Played Sep 10Finished
Vitezslav Burdik
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121191412––
Michal Chalupa
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:40 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeVitezslav Burdik to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitezslav Burdik above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 87 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Vitezslav Burdik at 54.6%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vitezslav Burdik 6–2 Michal Chalupa Michal Chalupa has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:40What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Burdik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Burdik
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burdik 1736 vs Chalupa 1750
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burdik 60% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burdik 60% vs Chalupa 90%
Chalupa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Burdik +3 · Chalupa +1
Burdik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Burdik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurdik 1.53 / Chalupa 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Burdik)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104989
Burdik1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Chalupa2.38
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 98 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back27% 33 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBurdik6wins
AwayChalupa2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderBurdik leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurdik100%4 of 4
AwayChalupa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burdik4Chalupa4n = 8split evenly
S2Burdik5Chalupa3n = 8Burdik took 5 of 8
S3Burdik6Chalupa2n = 8Burdik took 6 of 8
S4Burdik4Chalupa1n = 5Burdik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricBurdikChalupaB − CBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.432.9+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurdikChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 192 vs 381 / 72051%52.9%98 / 192 vs 381 / 720Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BurdikBurdik 1.53/Chalupa 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Burdik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Burdik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 2 · 21:30V. Burdik—8860M. Chalupa—1111113
LJul 2 · 19:30V. Burdik—81111772M. Chalupa—118911113
WMay 17 · 21:28V. Burdik—1111113M. Chalupa—8470
WMay 17 · 19:30V. Burdik—41111113M. Chalupa—116881
WFeb 2 · 15:30V. Burdik—111011113M. Chalupa—512691
WDec 5 · 21:00V. Burdik—11119113M. Chalupa—651171
WSep 28 · 18:30V. Burdik—1111113M. Chalupa—6880
WSep 14 · 18:30V. Burdik—571111113M. Chalupa—11118872
V. Burdik10
WSep 10 · 19:30L. Kern2.7571240V. Burdik1.401114113WSep 10 · 18:00V. Burdik1.801111143D. Szotek1.9189120WSep 3 · 21:00V. Burdik2.00111411113M. Wollny1.73516781LSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113LSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123WSep 3 · 18:00M. Wollny1.7361111852V. Burdik2.00119711113LSep 1 · 21:28M. Wollny1.731011911113V. Burdik2.0012711882WSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571WSep 1 · 19:00V. Burdik2.0091111123R. Urbaniec1.731185101LSep 1 · 18:00M. Wollny1.801111910113V. Burdik1.9148111272
M. Chalupa10
WSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek1.91127921M. Chalupa1.80101111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.679118101L. Kern2.1011711123WSep 9 · 21:29M. Chalupa1.9111119133R. Hudeczek1.809911111WSep 9 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.83951111133R. Hudeczek1.83111157112WSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.80861171M. Chalupa1.9111118113
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