TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104516
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111178111012––
Lukas Kern
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:08 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Lukas Kern below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 57.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 13–10 Lukas Kern Lukas Kern has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:08What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1760 vs Kern 1570
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 100% vs Kern 20%
Chalupa
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 90% vs Kern 40%
Chalupa
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +5 · Kern -1
Chalupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kern form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.67 / Kern 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Chalupa)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104516
Chalupa1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 134 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 93 of 121
Kern2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 42 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwayKern5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa66.7%4 of 6
AwayKern75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa6Kern4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa5Kern5n = 10split evenly
S3Chalupa5Kern5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupa4Kern3n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5Chalupa2Kern3n = 5Kern took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaKernC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.3−0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaKernBasisWin rate · lifetime380 / 718 vs 136 / 26252.9%51.9%380 / 718 vs 136 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.67/Kern 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 19:30M. Chalupa—1113123L. Kern—911100
WSep 4 · 20:00M. Chalupa—11911113L. Kern—511991
WSep 4 · 17:05M. Chalupa—112512113L. Kern—511111092
LSep 4 · 16:00M. Chalupa—111198112L. Kern—251111133
LAug 31 · 12:00M. Chalupa—97131192L. Kern—1111118113
WAug 26 · 19:30M. Chalupa—1111113L. Kern—4990
LAug 19 · 20:00M. Chalupa—6990L. Kern—1111113
WAug 13 · 21:30M. Chalupa—1111511113L. Kern—13711892
LAug 13 · 18:00M. Chalupa—311291L. Kern—11711113
LAug 11 · 20:30M. Chalupa—16511852L. Kern—1411911113
M. Chalupa10
WSep 9 · 21:29M. Chalupa1.9111119133R. Hudeczek1.809911111WSep 9 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.83951111133R. Hudeczek1.83111157112WSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.80861171M. Chalupa1.9111118113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113
L. Kern10
LSep 9 · 20:58L. Kern1.6771290D. Szotek2.101114113WSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10116451L. Kern1.6731111113LSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123LSep 9 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.8311119113L. Kern1.83881121LSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112WSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842LSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113
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