TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099201
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
91111131012––––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Kern above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 66 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 10–12 Michal Chalupa Lukas Kern has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:55What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1590 vs Chalupa 1723
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 40% vs Chalupa 100%
Chalupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 40% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern -2 · Chalupa +5
Chalupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 2.00 / Chalupa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099201
Kern2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Chalupa1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite56% won 131 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it77% 91 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKern5wins
AwayChalupa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern75%3 of 4
AwayChalupa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Kern5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Kern6Chalupa4n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S4Kern3Chalupa5n = 8Chalupa took 5 of 8
S5Kern3Chalupa2n = 5Kern took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKernChalupaK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.8+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 259 vs 377 / 71552.1%52.7%135 / 259 vs 377 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaKern 2.00/Chalupa 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern—511991M. Chalupa—11911113
LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern—511111092M. Chalupa—112512113
WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern—251111133M. Chalupa—111198112
WAug 31 · 12:00L. Kern—1111118113M. Chalupa—97131192
LAug 26 · 19:30L. Kern—4990M. Chalupa—1111113
WAug 19 · 20:00L. Kern—1111113M. Chalupa—6990
LAug 13 · 21:30L. Kern—13711892M. Chalupa—1111511113
WAug 13 · 18:00L. Kern—11711113M. Chalupa—311291
WAug 11 · 20:30L. Kern—1411911113M. Chalupa—16511852
LAug 11 · 14:30L. Kern—981191M. Chalupa—11117113
L. Kern10
LSep 9 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.8311119113L. Kern1.83881121LSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112WSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842LSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113
M. Chalupa10
WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.80861171M. Chalupa1.9111118113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113
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