TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13106338
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111214911––––
David Szotek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingLukas Kern above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 64 set 3, 9-11
64 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 6–5 David Szotek David Szotek has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kern beat Szotek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kern)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.67 / Szotek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kern)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13106338
Kern1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Szotek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 47 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKern6wins
AwaySzotek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern80%4 of 5
AwaySzotek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern5Szotek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kern6Szotek4n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S3Kern6Szotek4n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S4Kern4Szotek4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKernSzotekK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.035.3+2.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 261 vs 168 / 36252.1%46.4%136 / 261 vs 168 / 362Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernKern 1.67/Szotek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 20:30L. Kern—31111113D. Szotek—116451
LSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern—11111071D. Szotek—13712113
WAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern—741412113D. Szotek—1111121092
WAug 19 · 21:30L. Kern—1111113D. Szotek—5760
WAug 19 · 19:30L. Kern—11511113D. Szotek—211851
WAug 16 · 13:29L. Kern—1311113D. Szotek—11450
LAug 16 · 10:00L. Kern—971191D. Szotek—11117113
LAug 13 · 20:00L. Kern—1112841D. Szotek—131011113
LAug 11 · 16:00L. Kern—11101161D. Szotek—91213113
WJul 30 · 20:58L. Kern—11119113D. Szotek—981191
L. Kern10
WSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10116451L. Kern1.6731111113LSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123LSep 9 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.8311119113L. Kern1.83881121LSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112WSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842LSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113
D. Szotek10
LSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10116451L. Kern1.6731111113LSep 9 · 19:00D. Szotek1.615118101R. Hudeczek2.2011711123LSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 9 · 17:15D. Szotek1.751111143R. Hudeczek1.9599120LSep 9 · 16:00R. Hudeczek2.209121111113D. Szotek1.6111145472WSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113LSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:00D. Szotek1.53117148113R. Hudeczek2.38711121192LSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111
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