TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098818
Played Sep 9Finished
David Szotek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113611411511––
Lukas Kern
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Lukas Kern below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 62 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 56.2%
62 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 5–5 Lukas Kern Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Szotek beat Kern 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kern
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotek 1610 vs Kern 1581
Szotek
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotek 40% vs Kern 20%
Szotek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotek 40% vs Kern 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotek -2 · Kern -3
Kern
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kern)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kern form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 2.10 / Kern 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kern)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098818
Szotek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 47 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Kern1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotek5wins
AwayKern5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek75%3 of 4
AwayKern66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek4Kern6n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S2Szotek5Kern5n = 10split evenly
S3Szotek5Kern5n = 10split evenly
S4Szotek5Kern3n = 8Szotek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotekKernS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.0−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekKernBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 361 vs 135 / 26046.5%51.9%168 / 361 vs 135 / 260Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernSzotek 2.10/Kern 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 15:00D. Szotek—13712113L. Kern—11111071
LAug 31 · 10:30D. Szotek—1111121092L. Kern—741412113
LAug 19 · 21:30D. Szotek—5760L. Kern—1111113
LAug 19 · 19:30D. Szotek—211851L. Kern—11511113
LAug 16 · 13:29D. Szotek—11450L. Kern—1311113
WAug 16 · 10:00D. Szotek—11117113L. Kern—971191
WAug 13 · 20:00D. Szotek—131011113L. Kern—1112841
WAug 11 · 16:00D. Szotek—91213113L. Kern—11101161
LJul 30 · 20:58D. Szotek—981191L. Kern—11119113
WJul 30 · 18:00D. Szotek—61411113L. Kern—1112761
D. Szotek10
LSep 9 · 19:00D. Szotek1.615118101R. Hudeczek2.2011711123LSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 9 · 17:15D. Szotek1.751111143R. Hudeczek1.9599120LSep 9 · 16:00R. Hudeczek2.209121111113D. Szotek1.6111145472WSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113LSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:00D. Szotek1.53117148113R. Hudeczek2.38711121192LSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:00D. Szotek1.614111311113M. Holub2.2011615842
L. Kern10
LSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123LSep 9 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.8311119113L. Kern1.83881121LSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112WSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842LSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113
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