TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099205
Played Sep 9Finished
David Szotek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111178111012––
Roman Hudeczek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Szotek to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Roman Hudeczek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 — our read held David Szotek at 58.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 7–5 Roman Hudeczek Roman Hudeczek has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Szotek beat Hudeczek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:07What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Szotek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Szotek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotek 1629 vs Hudeczek 1676
Hudeczek
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotek 40% vs Hudeczek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotek 40% vs Hudeczek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotek -1 · Hudeczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Szotek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 1.61 / Hudeczek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Szotek)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099205
Szotek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41
Hudeczek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 60 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back33% 23 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back22% 8 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotek6wins
AwayHudeczek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzotek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek85.7%6 of 7
AwayHudeczek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek7Hudeczek3n = 10Szotek took 7 of 10
S2Szotek5Hudeczek5n = 10split evenly
S3Szotek6Hudeczek4n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S4Szotek2Hudeczek3n = 5Hudeczek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotekHudeczekS − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.535.6−0.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekHudeczekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 360 vs 170 / 34846.7%48.9%168 / 360 vs 170 / 348Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotekSzotek 1.61/Hudeczek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Szotek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hudeczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 17:15D. Szotek—1111143R. Hudeczek—99120
LSep 9 · 16:00D. Szotek—11145472R. Hudeczek—9121111113
WSep 7 · 20:00D. Szotek—117148113R. Hudeczek—711121192
WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek—1111113R. Hudeczek—7860
WAug 24 · 15:00D. Szotek—1311113R. Hudeczek—11350
WAug 21 · 20:00D. Szotek—17511113R. Hudeczek—1511881
LAug 19 · 17:00D. Szotek—9740R. Hudeczek—1111113
LAug 19 · 14:00D. Szotek—9470R. Hudeczek—1111113
LAug 16 · 11:00D. Szotek—911971R. Hudeczek—11711113
WJul 9 · 14:00D. Szotek—11611113R. Hudeczek—611981
D. Szotek10
LSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 9 · 17:15D. Szotek1.751111143R. Hudeczek1.9599120LSep 9 · 16:00R. Hudeczek2.209121111113D. Szotek1.6111145472WSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113LSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:00D. Szotek1.53117148113R. Hudeczek2.38711121192LSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:00D. Szotek1.614111311113M. Holub2.2011615842LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113
R. Hudeczek10
WSep 9 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.8311119113L. Kern1.83881121LSep 9 · 17:15D. Szotek1.751111143R. Hudeczek1.9599120WSep 9 · 16:00R. Hudeczek2.209121111113D. Szotek1.6111145472LSep 9 · 15:30M. Holub2.10991114113R. Hudeczek1.67111161292LSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 7 · 21:00R. Hudeczek1.67113138113M. Holub2.10711111172LSep 7 · 20:00D. Szotek1.53117148113R. Hudeczek2.38711121192WSep 7 · 19:00M. Holub2.20141341162R. Hudeczek1.611611114113LSep 7 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.80861171M. Chalupa1.9111118113WSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142
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