TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104611
Played Sep 10Finished
David Szotek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210711911211––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:37 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 73 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 56.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 15–16 Michal Chalupa David Szotek has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotek 1604 vs Chalupa 1742
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotek 20% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotek 30% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotek -1 · Chalupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 1.91 / Chalupa 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Chalupa)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104611
Szotek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 49 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Chalupa1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 134 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 93 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotek5wins
AwayChalupa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek100%3 of 3
AwayChalupa71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S2Szotek8Chalupa2n = 10Szotek took 8 of 10
S3Szotek4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Szotek3Chalupa4n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5Szotek3Chalupa2n = 5Szotek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotekChalupaS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.541.8−1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 360 vs 380 / 71945.8%52.9%165 / 360 vs 380 / 719Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaSzotek 1.91/Chalupa 1.80
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 18:00D. Szotek—41110101M. Chalupa—11712123
LSep 7 · 21:30D. Szotek—9760M. Chalupa—1111113
LSep 7 · 19:30D. Szotek—9135111M. Chalupa—111111133
LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek—61181462M. Chalupa—1191112113
WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek—1111123M. Chalupa—98100
WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek—1111113M. Chalupa—4660
LAug 25 · 20:30D. Szotek—81213772M. Chalupa—11101111113
WAug 25 · 17:30D. Szotek—811611133M. Chalupa—119119112
WAug 25 · 15:30D. Szotek—11101211113M. Chalupa—512101382
WAug 24 · 14:30D. Szotek—713511113M. Chalupa—111111682
D. Szotek10
LSep 10 · 18:00V. Burdik1.801111143D. Szotek1.9189120WSep 9 · 20:58L. Kern1.6771290D. Szotek2.101114113LSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10116451L. Kern1.6731111113LSep 9 · 19:00D. Szotek1.615118101R. Hudeczek2.2011711123LSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 9 · 17:15D. Szotek1.751111143R. Hudeczek1.9599120LSep 9 · 16:00R. Hudeczek2.209121111113D. Szotek1.6111145472WSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113LSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760
M. Chalupa10
LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.679118101L. Kern2.1011711123WSep 9 · 21:29M. Chalupa1.9111119133R. Hudeczek1.809911111WSep 9 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.83951111133R. Hudeczek1.83111157112WSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.80861171M. Chalupa1.9111118113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142
Upcoming Matches
D. Szotek
M. Chalupa
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