TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13111529
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111161121113114
David Szotek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 84 set 5, 11-4
84 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 17–15 David Szotek David Szotek has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chalupa beat Szotek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.73 / Szotek 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Chalupa)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13111529
Chalupa1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 134 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 93 of 121
Szotek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 49 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa6wins
AwaySzotek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa83.3%5 of 6
AwaySzotek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa3Szotek7n = 10Szotek took 7 of 10
S3Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa5Szotek2n = 7Chalupa took 5 of 7
S5Chalupa2Szotek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaSzotekC − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.438.8+2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 721 vs 163 / 35952.8%45.4%381 / 721 vs 163 / 359Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.73/Szotek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 19:00M. Chalupa—101111113D. Szotek—127921
WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa—11712123D. Szotek—41110101
WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa—1111113D. Szotek—9760
WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa—111111133D. Szotek—9135111
WAug 31 · 13:00M. Chalupa—1191112113D. Szotek—61181462
LAug 31 · 11:30M. Chalupa—98100D. Szotek—1111123
LAug 25 · 21:28M. Chalupa—4660D. Szotek—1111113
WAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa—11101111113D. Szotek—81213772
LAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa—119119112D. Szotek—811611133
LAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa—512101382D. Szotek—11101211113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 10 · 20:00V. Burdik1.53111011143M. Chalupa2.388129121WSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek1.91127921M. Chalupa1.80101111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.679118101L. Kern2.1011711123WSep 9 · 21:29M. Chalupa1.9111119133R. Hudeczek1.809911111WSep 9 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.83951111133R. Hudeczek1.83111157112WSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111
D. Szotek10
LSep 10 · 20:30D. Szotek1.91119731L. Kern1.8041111113LSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek1.91127921M. Chalupa1.80101111113LSep 10 · 18:00V. Burdik1.801111143D. Szotek1.9189120WSep 9 · 20:58L. Kern1.6771290D. Szotek2.101114113LSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10116451L. Kern1.6731111113LSep 9 · 19:00D. Szotek1.615118101R. Hudeczek2.2011711123LSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101WSep 9 · 17:15D. Szotek1.751111143R. Hudeczek1.9599120LSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760LSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111
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