TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13116014
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomas Kypr
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1173111168111214
Zbynek Pagac
Away
2.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Kypr to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kypr above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 94 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Tomas Kypr at 55.4%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kypr 3–1 Zbynek Pagac Zbynek Pagac has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kypr beat Pagac 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Kypr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kypr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kypr 1726 vs Pagac 1512
Kypr
Wrong
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kypr 80% vs Pagac 60%
Kypr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kypr 70% vs Pagac 50%
Kypr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kypr +3 · Pagac +1
Kypr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kypr) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKypr 1.55 / Pagac 2.30
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Kypr)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13116014
Kypr1.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 31 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Pagac2.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 108 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKypr3wins
AwayPagac1wins
Kypr leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kypr2Pagac2n = 4split evenly
S2Kypr2Pagac2n = 4split evenly
S3Kypr3Pagac1n = 4Kypr took 3 of 4
S4Kypr3Pagac1n = 4Kypr took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKyprPagacK − PBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.538.5+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyprPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 106 vs 306 / 65055.7%47.1%59 / 106 vs 306 / 650Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyprKypr 1.55/Pagac 2.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Kypr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 11 · 15:00T. Kypr—121111113Z. Pagac—149991
LSep 10 · 21:28T. Kypr—661241Z. Pagac—111110113
WSep 10 · 20:00T. Kypr—111111113Z. Pagac—813551
WSep 3 · 20:30T. Kypr—111111123Z. Pagac—9713101
T. Kypr10
WSep 11 · 16:00M. Holub2.2591111482T. Kypr1.57118811113WSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.10149991T. Kypr1.67121111113WSep 11 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8311611113D. Unzeitig1.83811961LSep 10 · 21:28T. Kypr1.53661241Z. Pagac2.38111110113WSep 10 · 20:00T. Kypr1.67111111113Z. Pagac2.10813551WSep 10 · 19:30T. Petrek2.637740T. Kypr1.441111113LSep 10 · 18:00T. Kypr1.808128111D. Unzeitig1.91111011133WSep 6 · 09:30M. Bereiter1.807970T. Kypr1.901111113LSep 6 · 08:00T. Kypr1.737111081M. Bereiter2.0011912113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153
Z. Pagac10
WSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.571111113D. Unzeitig2.258680LSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.10149991T. Kypr1.67121111113WSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113WSep 10 · 21:28T. Kypr1.53661241Z. Pagac2.38111110113LSep 10 · 20:00T. Kypr1.67111111113Z. Pagac2.10813551WSep 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig2.2511751452Z. Pagac1.579111112113WSep 10 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.6771111113T. Petrek2.10116791LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113
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