TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104986
Played Sep 10Finished
Daniel Unzeitig
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1197115111412511
Zbynek Pagac
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Unzeitig to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Unzeitig above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 96 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Daniel Unzeitig at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Unzeitig 9–27 Zbynek Pagac Daniel Unzeitig has won 9 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-27 in 36
Pagac
Correct
gap of 18 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Unzeitig 1639 vs Pagac 1431
Unzeitig
Wrong
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Unzeitig 60% vs Pagac 20%
Unzeitig
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Unzeitig 60% vs Pagac 30%
Unzeitig
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Unzeitig +1 · Pagac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUnzeitig 2.25 / Pagac 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Unzeitig)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104986
Unzeitig2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 39 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Pagac1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 124 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 87 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUnzeitig1wins
AwayPagac9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUnzeitig33.3%1 of 3
AwayPagac100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Unzeitig3Pagac7n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S2Unzeitig5Pagac5n = 10split evenly
S3Unzeitig3Pagac7n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S4Unzeitig1Pagac5n = 6Pagac took 5 of 6
S5Unzeitig0Pagac3n = 3Pagac took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricUnzeitigPagacU − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.939.6−7.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUnzeitigPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 289 vs 302 / 64446.7%46.9%135 / 289 vs 302 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacUnzeitig 2.25/Pagac 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 06:30D. Unzeitig—8650Z. Pagac—1111113
LAug 3 · 10:00D. Unzeitig—81151162Z. Pagac—119116113
LJul 18 · 15:00D. Unzeitig—711131032Z. Pagac—1151112113
LJul 8 · 08:30D. Unzeitig—119111072Z. Pagac—811512113
LJun 28 · 20:30D. Unzeitig—7790Z. Pagac—1111113
LJun 24 · 19:30D. Unzeitig—1211891Z. Pagac—101311113
LJun 24 · 14:30D. Unzeitig—811191Z. Pagac—11911113
LJun 19 · 21:28D. Unzeitig—811241Z. Pagac—11611113
WJun 19 · 20:30D. Unzeitig—1111123Z. Pagac—88100
LMay 30 · 21:00D. Unzeitig—7720Z. Pagac—1111113
D. Unzeitig10
WSep 10 · 18:00T. Kypr1.808128111D. Unzeitig1.91111011133LSep 3 · 16:58D. Unzeitig1.91121181342J. Simecek1.801421111113WSep 3 · 16:30J. Simecek1.80111013101D. Unzeitig1.9191215123LSep 3 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.837860M. Bereiter1.831111113WSep 3 · 14:30T. Kypr2.001129101D. Unzeitig1.7341111123WAug 28 · 09:00D. Unzeitig2.2511116113J. Simecek1.57811131WAug 28 · 08:59D. Unzeitig2.2511116113J. Simecek1.57811131WAug 28 · 08:30J. Simecek1.44611981D. Unzeitig2.6311811113LAug 28 · 07:30D. Unzeitig2.207980M. Holub1.611111113LAug 28 · 06:30J. Holubec1.671111113D. Unzeitig2.106940
Z. Pagac10
WSep 10 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.6771111113T. Petrek2.10116791LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162
Upcoming Matches
D. Unzeitig
Z. Pagac
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