TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114730
Played Sep 12Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111181210117––
Daniel Unzeitig
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:06 and never touched — 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Daniel Unzeitig below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 62.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 29–9 Daniel Unzeitig Daniel Unzeitig has won 9 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-9 in 38
Pagac
Correct
gap of 20 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1530 vs Unzeitig 1602
Unzeitig
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 80% vs Unzeitig 60%
Pagac
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 60% vs Unzeitig 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac +2 · Unzeitig +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Unzeitig form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.44 / Unzeitig 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Pagac)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114730
Pagac1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 125 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it92% 56 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it78% 85 of 109
Unzeitig2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 40 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac10wins
AwayUnzeitig0wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac100%7 of 7
AwayUnzeitig0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac7Unzeitig3n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S2Pagac6Unzeitig4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S3Pagac8Unzeitig2n = 10Pagac took 8 of 10
S4Pagac5Unzeitig2n = 7Pagac took 5 of 7
S5Pagac4Unzeitig0n = 4Pagac took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacUnzeitigP − UBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.433.3+9.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacUnzeitigBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 651 vs 138 / 29647.2%46.6%307 / 651 vs 138 / 296Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacPagac 1.44/Unzeitig 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac—1111113D. Unzeitig—8680
WSep 10 · 19:00Z. Pagac—9111112113D. Unzeitig—11751452
WAug 4 · 06:30Z. Pagac—1111113D. Unzeitig—8650
WAug 3 · 10:00Z. Pagac—119116113D. Unzeitig—81151162
WJul 18 · 15:00Z. Pagac—1151112113D. Unzeitig—711131032
WJul 8 · 08:30Z. Pagac—811512113D. Unzeitig—119111072
WJun 28 · 20:30Z. Pagac—1111113D. Unzeitig—7790
WJun 24 · 19:30Z. Pagac—101311113D. Unzeitig—1211891
WJun 24 · 14:30Z. Pagac—11911113D. Unzeitig—811191
WJun 19 · 21:28Z. Pagac—11611113D. Unzeitig—811241
Z. Pagac10
WSep 11 · 17:30T. Kypr1.55113118122Z. Pagac2.30711611143WSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.571111113D. Unzeitig2.258680LSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.10149991T. Kypr1.67121111113WSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113WSep 10 · 21:28T. Kypr1.53661241Z. Pagac2.38111110113LSep 10 · 20:00T. Kypr1.67111111113Z. Pagac2.10813551WSep 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig2.2511751452Z. Pagac1.579111112113WSep 10 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.6771111113T. Petrek2.10116791LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891
D. Unzeitig10
WSep 11 · 17:00D. Unzeitig2.00111311113M. Holub1.70815861LSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.571111113D. Unzeitig2.258680WSep 11 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.50114511113M. Holub1.5061111532LSep 11 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8311611113D. Unzeitig1.83811961WSep 10 · 21:06D. Unzeitig—713911113T. Petrek—111111232LSep 10 · 20:30D. Unzeitig1.53111081162T. Petrek2.38512117113LSep 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig2.2511751452Z. Pagac1.579111112113WSep 10 · 18:00T. Kypr1.808128111D. Unzeitig1.91111011133LSep 3 · 16:58D. Unzeitig1.91121181342J. Simecek1.801421111113WSep 3 · 16:30J. Simecek1.80111013101D. Unzeitig1.9191215123
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