TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129463
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511311811––––
Marek Holub
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:21 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Kern above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 49 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 58.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 10–7 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kern
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Kern
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1584 vs Holub 1535
Kern
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 40% vs Holub 20%
Kern
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 40% vs Holub 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern -1 · Holub -4
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kern) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.50 / Holub 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kern)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129463
Kern1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 62 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it86% 42 of 49
Holub2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKern7wins
AwayHolub3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern100%5 of 5
AwayHolub60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S2Kern5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Kern7Holub3n = 10Kern took 7 of 10
S4Kern5Holub1n = 6Kern took 5 of 6
S5Kern2Holub1n = 3Kern took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKernHolubK − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.737.7+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 266 vs 151 / 32451.9%46.6%138 / 266 vs 151 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernKern 1.50/Holub 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 17:30L. Kern521361111112M. Holub57151199133
WSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern49941411113M. Holub46111112842
WAug 19 · 18:00L. Kern4112117113M. Holub351081161
WAug 11 · 21:30L. Kern4511911143M. Holub397119121
WAug 11 · 18:00L. Kern361114113M. Holub2461260
WAug 8 · 16:30L. Kern331111113M. Holub248880
WAug 7 · 17:00L. Kern47741111143M. Holub51111189122
WAug 7 · 15:00L. Kern331111113M. Holub225890
LJul 29 · 16:30L. Kern2611870M. Holub351311113
LJul 24 · 19:30L. Kern35913761M. Holub44111111113
L. Kern10
LSep 10 · 21:29V. Burdik1.33631111113L. Kern3.2511115972WSep 10 · 20:30D. Szotek1.91119731L. Kern1.8041111113LSep 10 · 19:30L. Kern2.7571240V. Burdik1.401114113WSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.679118101L. Kern2.1011711123LSep 9 · 20:58L. Kern1.6771290D. Szotek2.101114113WSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10116451L. Kern1.6731111113LSep 9 · 19:30L. Kern2.00911100M. Chalupa1.731113123LSep 9 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.8311119113L. Kern1.83881121LSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112WSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842
M. Holub10
LSep 11 · 17:00D. Unzeitig2.00111311113M. Holub1.70815861LSep 11 · 16:00M. Holub2.2591111482T. Kypr1.57118811113LSep 11 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.50114511113M. Holub1.5061111532LSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112LSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842WSep 9 · 15:30M. Holub2.10991114113R. Hudeczek1.67111161292WSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:00R. Hudeczek1.67113138113M. Holub2.10711111172LSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113
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