TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13119542
Played Sep 13Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412115114––––
David Szotek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 65.9% is still 65.9%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
65.9%
65.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 57 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 65.9%
57 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 13–8 David Szotek David Szotek has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Szotek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Pagac
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1608 vs Szotek 1593
Pagac
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 60% vs Szotek 20%
Pagac
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 70% vs Szotek 20%
Pagac
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -1 · Szotek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Szotek) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.10 / Szotek 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Szotek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13119542
Pagac2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 97 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 94
Szotek1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 34 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac8wins
AwaySzotek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac100%4 of 4
AwaySzotek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac4Szotek6n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S2Pagac6Szotek4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S3Pagac9Szotek1n = 10Pagac took 9 of 10
S4Pagac3Szotek4n = 7Szotek took 4 of 7
S5Pagac3Szotek0n = 3Pagac took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacSzotekP − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.033.2+6.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 657 vs 164 / 36147.3%45.4%311 / 657 vs 164 / 361Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotekPagac 2.10/Szotek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.6%
Szotek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 12:00Z. Pagac331111113D. Szotek219750
LAug 21 · 21:28Z. Pagac217950D. Szotek331111113
WAug 21 · 19:30Z. Pagac539121110113D. Szotek48111071282
WAug 20 · 15:00Z. Pagac4181111113D. Szotek29116571
WAug 19 · 16:30Z. Pagac49101111893D. Szotek4412691162
LAug 16 · 12:30Z. Pagac4491011141D. Szotek4711128163
WAug 13 · 20:58Z. Pagac331111113D. Szotek184680
WAug 13 · 18:30Z. Pagac4211911113D. Szotek26311661
WAug 11 · 14:00Z. Pagac45139111113D. Szotek39111151112
WAug 10 · 15:30Z. Pagac3961111113D. Szotek27113671
Z. Pagac10
LSep 13 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.0011531132R. Hudeczek1.73811117113WSep 13 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.53121112462Z. Pagac2.381061411113WSep 12 · 13:00Z. Pagac1.5711811113M. Bereiter2.25811871WSep 12 · 12:00Z. Pagac1.671311133M. Bereiter2.10119110LSep 12 · 11:30A. Walek2.201111113Z. Pagac1.618870WSep 12 · 10:00Z. Pagac1.4461112113D. Unzeitig2.631181071WSep 11 · 17:30T. Kypr1.55113118122Z. Pagac2.30711611143WSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.571111113D. Unzeitig2.258680LSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.10149991T. Kypr1.67121111113WSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113
D. Szotek10
WSep 13 · 15:30D. Szotek2.001115113M. Chalupa1.7391380LSep 13 · 14:30R. Hudeczek2.101115113D. Szotek1.6781350LSep 10 · 20:58M. Chalupa1.734111111113D. Szotek2.0011621342LSep 10 · 20:30D. Szotek1.91119731L. Kern1.8041111113LSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek1.91127921M. Chalupa1.80101111113LSep 10 · 18:00V. Burdik1.801111143D. Szotek1.9189120WSep 9 · 20:58L. Kern1.6771290D. Szotek2.101114113LSep 9 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10116451L. Kern1.6731111113LSep 9 · 19:00D. Szotek1.615118101R. Hudeczek2.2011711123LSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.8311712123D. Szotek1.8341110101
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.