TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135996
Played Sep 15Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115117––––
Zbynek Pagac
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 60.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 21–42 Zbynek Pagac Marek Holub has won 21 of their 63 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pagac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-42 in 63
Pagac
Wrong
gap of 21 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1554 vs Pagac 1604
Pagac
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Pagac 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 50% vs Pagac 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +2 · Pagac -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.38 / Pagac 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Pagac)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135996
Holub2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Pagac1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 115 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it79% 77 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub5wins
AwayPagac5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub80%4 of 5
AwayPagac80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Pagac5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub7Pagac3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S3Holub5Pagac5n = 10split evenly
S4Holub2Pagac4n = 6Pagac took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubPagacH − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.833.3+1.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 327 vs 314 / 66246.8%47.4%153 / 327 vs 314 / 662Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacHolub 2.38/Pagac 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub361181071Z. Pagac3951112113
LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub34712691Z. Pagac43111011113
WSep 1 · 18:30M. Holub331111113Z. Pagac121290
WAug 31 · 14:00M. Holub53991311113Z. Pagac36111111212
LAug 25 · 17:00M. Holub36714781Z. Pagac45111211113
WAug 25 · 15:00M. Holub4111118113Z. Pagac29451191
LAug 24 · 13:00M. Holub115150Z. Pagac331111113
WAug 24 · 11:30M. Holub331111113Z. Pagac219480
LAug 20 · 16:30M. Holub3661111262Z. Pagac49119711113
WAug 11 · 20:00M. Holub351311113Z. Pagac2611960
M. Holub10
LSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113WSep 15 · 15:00M. Holub2.50414119123T. Kypr1.501112811102WSep 15 · 14:00L. Kern1.505380M. Holub2.501111113LSep 11 · 17:00D. Unzeitig2.00111311113M. Holub1.70815861LSep 11 · 16:00M. Holub2.2591111482T. Kypr1.57118811113LSep 11 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.50114511113M. Holub1.5061111532LSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112LSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842WSep 9 · 15:30M. Holub2.10991114113R. Hudeczek1.67111161292
Z. Pagac10
WSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113LSep 15 · 15:30Z. Pagac3.257590L. Kern1.331111113WSep 15 · 14:30T. Kypr1.61961161Z. Pagac2.2011117113LSep 13 · 17:29Z. Pagac2.005660R. Hudeczek1.731111113WSep 13 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.101411113D. Szotek1.6712540LSep 13 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.0011531132R. Hudeczek1.73811117113WSep 13 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.53121112462Z. Pagac2.381061411113WSep 12 · 13:00Z. Pagac1.5711811113M. Bereiter2.25811871WSep 12 · 12:00Z. Pagac1.671311133M. Bereiter2.10119110WSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub2.201181071Z. Pagac1.6151112113
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