Zbynek Pagac vs Jaroslav Schwan 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13139785

Played Sep 17Finished

Zbynek Pagac

Home

1.30

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

9111311115111––

Jaroslav Schwan

Away

3.40

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:37 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%

Graded at full time

Jaroslav Schwan to win

62.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Jaroslav Schwan below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 13-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 11-1

Point 72 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 62.6%

72 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 10:37

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.30 (72%)

Pagac

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Pagac 1635 vs Schwan 1674

Schwan

Wrong

both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Pagac 60% vs Schwan 80%

Schwan

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Pagac 60% vs Schwan 80%

Schwan

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Pagac +1 · Schwan +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Schwan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPagac 1.30 / Schwan 3.40

Signal prob.70% / 30%

Edge (Pagac)-2.2pp (anti-value)

Czech Liga Pro · #13139785

Pagac1.30

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite60% won 117 of 196

Up 2–0, closes it95% 52 of 55

Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99

Schwan3.40

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog35% won 18 of 52

Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35

Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricPagacSchwanBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 667 vs 136 / 28247.5%48.2%317 / 667 vs 136 / 282Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Pagac

Pagac 1.30/Schwan 3.40

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

70.1%

Pagac · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Pagac won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

Z. Pagac10