TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135163
Played Sep 15Finished
Jaroslav Schwan
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911112117115––
Marcel Heczko
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Marcel Heczko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 67 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 55.4%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 4–0 Marcel Heczko Marcel Heczko has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Schwan beat Heczko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Schwan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Schwan
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1641 vs Heczko 1581
Schwan
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 80% vs Heczko 60%
Schwan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 70% vs Heczko 50%
Schwan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan +4 · Heczko -1
Schwan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Schwan) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.25 / Heczko 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Schwan)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135163
Schwan1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Heczko3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 61 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSchwan4wins
AwayHeczko0wins
Schwan leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan100%4 of 4
AwayHeczkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan4Heczko0n = 4Schwan took 4 of 4
S2Schwan2Heczko2n = 4split evenly
S3Schwan4Heczko0n = 4Schwan took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSchwanHeczkoS − HBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.524.0+13.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 277 vs 290 / 60347.7%48.1%132 / 277 vs 290 / 603Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanSchwan 1.25/Heczko 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 12:30J. Schwan351311113M. Heczko2211650
WSep 15 · 06:00J. Schwan331111113M. Heczko199550
WFeb 27 · 10:30J. Schwan3811511113M. Heczko26411831
WFeb 27 · 07:30J. Schwan4411814113M. Heczko294111221
J. Schwan10
WSep 15 · 12:30J. Schwan1.301311113M. Heczko3.4011650WSep 15 · 11:00J. Schwan1.73101111113J. Levicky2.00127631WSep 15 · 10:00A. Rinka1.73145771J. Schwan2.00121111113WSep 15 · 09:30J. Schwan1.731111113S. Byrtus2.006830LSep 15 · 08:00J. Schwan1.57111391192S. Byrtus2.25615113113WSep 15 · 07:30R. Vavrecka1.67115691J. Schwan2.1071111113WSep 15 · 06:00J. Schwan1.401111113M. Heczko2.759550LSep 11 · 21:30D. Langer1.63811117113J. Schwan2.1511861182WSep 11 · 20:30D. Heczko2.1071070J. Schwan1.671112113LSep 11 · 19:30J. Schwan2.1091111101D. Langer1.6711132123
M. Heczko10
LSep 15 · 12:30J. Schwan1.301311113M. Heczko3.4011650WSep 15 · 11:30M. Heczko1.6711811113A. Rinka2.10611571WSep 15 · 10:30J. Levicky1.8061211562M. Heczko1.911110611113WSep 15 · 09:03M. Heczko2.00511711113R. Vavrecka1.7311711452LSep 15 · 08:30M. Heczko2.1011135552R. Vavrecka1.676111111113WSep 15 · 07:00M. Heczko2.0011128113S. Byrtus1.738101191LSep 15 · 06:00J. Schwan1.401111113M. Heczko2.759550LSep 13 · 21:29V. Zidek2.381111113M. Heczko1.535790LSep 13 · 20:30V. Zidek3.001111113M. Heczko1.364660WSep 13 · 19:30M. Heczko2.0011115113V. Adamczyk1.73981151
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