TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129612
Played Sep 15Finished
Jaroslav Schwan
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161315911113911
Samuel Byrtus
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:02 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Samuel Byrtus below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 56.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 8–4 Samuel Byrtus Samuel Byrtus has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Schwan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Schwan
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1579 vs Byrtus 1572
Schwan
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 60% vs Byrtus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 60% vs Byrtus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan +2 · Byrtus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Schwan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Byrtus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.57 / Byrtus 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Schwan)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13129612
Schwan1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Byrtus2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 69 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchwan7wins
AwayByrtus3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSchwan leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan57.1%4 of 7
AwayByrtus0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan7Byrtus3n = 10Schwan took 7 of 10
S2Schwan6Byrtus4n = 10Schwan took 6 of 10
S3Schwan7Byrtus3n = 10Schwan took 7 of 10
S4Schwan4Byrtus2n = 6Schwan took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchwanByrtusS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.229.9+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanByrtusBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 272 vs 303 / 59047.1%51.4%128 / 272 vs 303 / 590Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanSchwan 1.57/Byrtus 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Byrtus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 18:30J. Schwan47861111113S. Byrtus3511114722
LSep 9 · 13:30J. Schwan35119961S. Byrtus3741111113
LSep 9 · 10:30J. Schwan501161211102S. Byrtus50511148123
LAug 17 · 18:00J. Schwan33129751S. Byrtus43101111113
WJul 22 · 11:00J. Schwan331111113S. Byrtus179440
WMay 29 · 09:30J. Schwan4071111113S. Byrtus25119141
WMay 29 · 06:00J. Schwan361411113S. Byrtus2712780
WMay 27 · 06:00J. Schwan331111113S. Byrtus185760
WMay 21 · 12:30J. Schwan331111113S. Byrtus184770
WMay 15 · 17:30J. Schwan4291111113S. Byrtus29113691
J. Schwan10
WSep 15 · 07:30R. Vavrecka1.67115691J. Schwan2.1071111113WSep 15 · 06:00J. Schwan1.401111113M. Heczko2.759550LSep 11 · 21:30D. Langer1.63811117113J. Schwan2.1511861182WSep 11 · 20:30D. Heczko2.1071070J. Schwan1.671112113LSep 11 · 19:30J. Schwan2.1091111101D. Langer1.6711132123WSep 11 · 18:30S. Byrtus1.9111114722J. Schwan1.80861111113LSep 9 · 13:30J. Schwan1.61119961S. Byrtus2.2041111113WSep 9 · 12:30S. Kysely1.731181151J. Schwan2.0071113113WSep 9 · 11:30J. Schwan1.91511116123R. Skacelik1.80119311102LSep 9 · 10:30S. Byrtus2.38511148123J. Schwan1.531161211102
S. Byrtus10
LSep 15 · 07:00M. Heczko2.0011128113S. Byrtus1.738101191WSep 15 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.501111113R. Vavrecka2.504980WSep 14 · 17:30R. Skacelik1.4987111172S. Byrtus2.40111185113WSep 14 · 16:30S. Byrtus2.251215134113D. Oborny1.571017111172LSep 14 · 15:00S. Byrtus2.63891141R. Skacelik1.4411116113WSep 14 · 14:00D. Machander2.1061111742S. Byrtus1.67116911113LSep 12 · 17:30D. Heczko1.80611113113S. Byrtus1.9111881192LSep 11 · 18:30S. Byrtus1.9111114722J. Schwan1.80861111113WSep 9 · 13:30J. Schwan1.61119961S. Byrtus2.2041111113WSep 9 · 10:30S. Byrtus2.38511148123J. Schwan1.531161211102
Upcoming Matches
J. Schwan
S. Byrtus
Nothing scheduled
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