TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140415
Played Sep 16Finished
Jaroslav Schwan
Home
1.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191161113114––
Stepan Kysely
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Stepan Kysely below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 76 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 56.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 2–1 Stepan Kysely Stepan Kysely has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Schwan beat Kysely 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Schwan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1664 vs Kysely 1606
Schwan
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 80% vs Kysely 60%
Schwan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 80% vs Kysely 40%
Schwan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan -1 · Kysely +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Schwan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kysely form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.65 / Kysely 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Schwan)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140415
Schwan1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 40 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it74% 26 of 35
Kysely2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog54% won 7 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSchwan2wins
AwayKysely1wins
Schwan leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan1Kysely2n = 3Kysely took 2 of 3
S2Schwan2Kysely1n = 3Schwan took 2 of 3
S3Schwan2Kysely1n = 3Schwan took 2 of 3
S4Schwan2Kysely1n = 3Schwan took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSchwanKyselyS − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.339.0+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanKyselyBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 281 vs 79 / 14248%55.6%135 / 281 vs 79 / 142Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanSchwan 1.65/Kysely 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 16 · 10:30J. Schwan4061111123S. Kysely391199101
WSep 9 · 12:30J. Schwan4271113113S. Kysely351181151
LMar 18 · 15:00J. Schwan361111591S. Kysely4381311113
J. Schwan10
LSep 16 · 12:30R. Vavrecka1.91711611133J. Schwan1.80115119112WSep 16 · 11:30J. Schwan1.281211113M. Heczko3.5010760WSep 16 · 10:30S. Kysely2.201199101J. Schwan1.6161111123WSep 15 · 13:30J. Schwan1.2591111113M. Heczko3.75112751WSep 15 · 12:30J. Schwan1.301311113M. Heczko3.4011650WSep 15 · 11:00J. Schwan1.73101111113J. Levicky2.00127631WSep 15 · 10:00A. Rinka1.73145771J. Schwan2.00121111113WSep 15 · 09:30J. Schwan1.731111113S. Byrtus2.006830LSep 15 · 08:00J. Schwan1.57111391192S. Byrtus2.25615113113WSep 15 · 07:30R. Vavrecka1.67115691J. Schwan2.1071111113
S. Kysely10
WSep 16 · 12:00M. Heczko3.40116581S. Kysely1.3061111113WSep 16 · 11:00R. Vavrecka2.20881171S. Kysely1.6111118113LSep 16 · 10:30S. Kysely2.201199101J. Schwan1.6161111123LSep 16 · 08:59S. Kysely1.57111110662P. Danko2.25791211113WSep 16 · 08:30P. Danko1.73101520S. Kysely2.001217113LSep 16 · 07:30S. Kysely1.91119991R. Skacelik1.8031111113WSep 16 · 06:30J. Levicky1.9171111682S. Kysely1.80118511113LSep 9 · 13:00S. Kysely1.619119111R. Skacelik2.2011511133LSep 9 · 12:30S. Kysely1.731181151J. Schwan2.0071113113LSep 9 · 11:00S. Kysely1.6111541292S. Byrtus2.206111110113
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