TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135685
Played Sep 16Finished
Radomir Vavrecka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811118711––
Stepan Kysely
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:16 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeStepan Kysely to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadomir Vavrecka above · Stepan Kysely below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Stepan Kysely at 57.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Radomir Vavrecka 1–2 Stepan Kysely Radomir Vavrecka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kysely
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1457 vs Kysely 1588
Kysely
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 20% vs Kysely 40%
Kysely
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 20% vs Kysely 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka -2 · Kysely -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kysely)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kysely form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 2.20 / Kysely 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kysely)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135685
Vavrecka2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Kysely1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVavrecka1wins
AwayKysely2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKysely leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavreckan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKysely66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka0Kysely3n = 3Kysely took 3 of 3
S2Vavrecka2Kysely1n = 3Vavrecka took 2 of 3
S3Vavrecka1Kysely2n = 3Kysely took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricVavreckaKyselyV − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match41.742.0−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaKyselyBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 286 vs 77 / 14050.7%55%145 / 286 vs 77 / 140Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyselyVavrecka 2.20/Kysely 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Kysely · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kysely won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMar 18 · 18:30R. Vavrecka48811711113S. Kysely4211911742
LMar 18 · 16:30R. Vavrecka48911111162S. Kysely49117713113
LMar 3 · 21:00R. Vavrecka2991190S. Kysely351113113
R. Vavrecka10
LSep 16 · 10:00M. Heczko2.2081116113R. Vavrecka1.611141461LSep 15 · 09:03M. Heczko2.00511711113R. Vavrecka1.7311711452WSep 15 · 08:30M. Heczko2.1011135552R. Vavrecka1.676111111113LSep 15 · 07:30R. Vavrecka1.67115691J. Schwan2.1071111113LSep 15 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.501111113R. Vavrecka2.504980LSep 13 · 21:00V. Adamczyk1.671111117113R. Vavrecka2.1013981162LSep 13 · 20:00V. Adamczyk1.731211113R. Vavrecka2.0010790LSep 13 · 19:00V. Zidek2.6312511113R. Vavrecka1.441011671LSep 13 · 18:30R. Vavrecka1.6168121192M. Heczko2.201111108113WSep 8 · 21:29R. Vavrecka1.9191111113L. Velicka1.80116461
S. Kysely10
WSep 16 · 12:00M. Heczko3.40116581S. Kysely1.3061111113LSep 16 · 10:30S. Kysely2.201199101J. Schwan1.6161111123LSep 16 · 08:59S. Kysely1.57111110662P. Danko2.25791211113WSep 16 · 08:30P. Danko1.73101520S. Kysely2.001217113LSep 16 · 07:30S. Kysely1.91119991R. Skacelik1.8031111113WSep 16 · 06:30J. Levicky1.9171111682S. Kysely1.80118511113LSep 9 · 13:00S. Kysely1.619119111R. Skacelik2.2011511133LSep 9 · 12:30S. Kysely1.731181151J. Schwan2.0071113113LSep 9 · 11:00S. Kysely1.6111541292S. Byrtus2.206111110113WSep 9 · 10:00R. Skacelik1.737890S. Kysely2.001111113
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