TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140441
Played Sep 17Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118911511––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 59.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 37–45 Michal Chalupa Marek Holub has won 37 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-45 in 82
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 8 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1566 vs Chalupa 1663
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 20% vs Chalupa 40%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Chalupa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -3 · Chalupa +1
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.25 / Chalupa 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140441
Holub2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 57
Chalupa1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 113 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub3wins
AwayChalupa7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub75%3 of 4
AwayChalupa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Holub1Chalupa9n = 10Chalupa took 9 of 10
S3Holub5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Holub3Chalupa4n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5Holub3Chalupa3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubChalupaH − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.4−2.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 334 vs 381 / 72446.4%52.6%155 / 334 vs 381 / 724Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaHolub 2.25/Chalupa 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub207580M. Chalupa331111113
LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub165470M. Chalupa331111113
WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub50118119113M. Chalupa3761121172
LSep 2 · 18:30M. Holub47810111172M. Chalupa48111268113
LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub4912991182M. Chalupa501011117113
WSep 1 · 20:00M. Holub53159117113M. Chalupa48131151182
LAug 31 · 15:30M. Holub2691070M. Chalupa341112113
LAug 25 · 14:30M. Holub4010121081M. Chalupa45121012113
LAug 24 · 12:30M. Holub44751111102M. Chalupa51111189123
WAug 19 · 21:00M. Holub51119119113M. Chalupa4581171182
M. Holub10
WSep 17 · 20:59Z. Pagac1.441112591M. Holub2.6341411113LSep 17 · 19:30T. Kypr1.531111123M. Holub2.3888100LSep 17 · 18:00M. Holub2.208850Z. Pagac1.611111113LSep 16 · 17:08M. Holub2.50711161T. Kypr1.5011511113WSep 16 · 16:30M. Holub2.38131411113T. Kypr1.53111112992LSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub2.10116111182Z. Pagac1.67131189113LSep 16 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.6711611113M. Holub2.10511691WSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570LSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113WSep 15 · 15:00M. Holub2.50414119123T. Kypr1.501112811102
M. Chalupa10
WSep 17 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.255890M. Chalupa1.571111113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.508950T. Kypr2.501111113LSep 13 · 17:00M. Chalupa1.8567120D. Szotek1.851111143WSep 13 · 16:00M. Chalupa1.8311911123R. Hudeczek1.837114101LSep 13 · 15:30D. Szotek2.001115113M. Chalupa1.7391380LSep 13 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.53121112462Z. Pagac2.381061411113WSep 10 · 20:58M. Chalupa1.734111111113D. Szotek2.0011621342LSep 10 · 20:00V. Burdik1.53111011143M. Chalupa2.388129121WSep 10 · 19:00D. Szotek1.91127921M. Chalupa1.80101111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.679118101L. Kern2.1011711123
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