TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13148854
Played Sep 17Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1141214511911––
Marek Holub
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11
77 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 45–22 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 22 of their 67 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pagac beat Holub 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Pagac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.44 / Holub 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Pagac)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13148854
Pagac1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 117 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it95% 52 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Holub2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac6wins
AwayHolub4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac80%4 of 5
AwayHolub60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S2Pagac5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Pagac6Holub4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S4Pagac4Holub3n = 7Pagac took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacHolubP − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.036.4−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 674 vs 155 / 33547.9%46.3%323 / 674 vs 155 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacPagac 1.44/Holub 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 18:00Z. Pagac331111113M. Holub218850
WSep 16 · 15:00Z. Pagac52131189113M. Holub47116111182
LSep 15 · 17:30Z. Pagac208570M. Holub331111113
WSep 15 · 16:30Z. Pagac4181111113M. Holub30117661
WSep 11 · 14:00Z. Pagac3951112113M. Holub361181071
WSep 3 · 18:00Z. Pagac43111011113M. Holub34712691
LSep 1 · 18:30Z. Pagac121290M. Holub331111113
LAug 31 · 14:00Z. Pagac36111111212M. Holub53991311113
WAug 25 · 17:00Z. Pagac45111211113M. Holub36714781
LAug 25 · 15:00Z. Pagac29451191M. Holub4111118113
Z. Pagac10
WSep 17 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.83121173113T. Kypr1.83104111172LSep 17 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.255890M. Chalupa1.571111113WSep 17 · 18:00M. Holub2.208850Z. Pagac1.611111113WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380WSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac1.5361111113D. Unzeitig2.38117891WSep 17 · 15:30R. Skacelik2.2511881132Z. Pagac1.57711119113WSep 17 · 14:00Z. Pagac1.3091311113J. Schwan3.401111511WSep 16 · 17:29R. Hudeczek1.50119761Z. Pagac2.5091111113LSep 16 · 16:00R. Hudeczek1.6781111113Z. Pagac2.10119481WSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub2.10116111182Z. Pagac1.67131189113
M. Holub10
LSep 17 · 20:00M. Holub2.25611951M. Chalupa1.5711811113LSep 17 · 19:30T. Kypr1.531111123M. Holub2.3888100LSep 17 · 18:00M. Holub2.208850Z. Pagac1.611111113LSep 16 · 17:08M. Holub2.50711161T. Kypr1.5011511113WSep 16 · 16:30M. Holub2.38131411113T. Kypr1.53111112992LSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub2.10116111182Z. Pagac1.67131189113LSep 16 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.6711611113M. Holub2.10511691WSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570LSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113WSep 15 · 15:00M. Holub2.50414119123T. Kypr1.501112811102
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