TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140627
Played Sep 17Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811511––––
Zbynek Pagac
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 57.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 22–44 Zbynek Pagac Marek Holub has won 22 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:52What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-44 in 66
Pagac
Correct
gap of 22 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1588 vs Pagac 1698
Pagac
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Pagac 100%
Pagac
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Pagac 80%
Pagac
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -1 · Pagac +5
Pagac
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.20 / Pagac 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Pagac)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140627
Holub2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 57
Pagac1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 117 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it95% 52 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 78 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayPagac6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub60%3 of 5
AwayPagac80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Pagac5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub5Pagac5n = 10split evenly
S3Holub4Pagac6n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S4Holub3Pagac4n = 7Pagac took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubPagacH − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.0+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 332 vs 321 / 67146.7%47.8%155 / 332 vs 321 / 671Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacHolub 2.20/Pagac 1.61
Hit
What we said
59.7%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub47116111182Z. Pagac52131189113
WSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub331111113Z. Pagac208570
LSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub30117661Z. Pagac4181111113
LSep 11 · 14:00M. Holub361181071Z. Pagac3951112113
LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub34712691Z. Pagac43111011113
WSep 1 · 18:30M. Holub331111113Z. Pagac121290
WAug 31 · 14:00M. Holub53991311113Z. Pagac36111111212
LAug 25 · 17:00M. Holub36714781Z. Pagac45111211113
WAug 25 · 15:00M. Holub4111118113Z. Pagac29451191
LAug 24 · 13:00M. Holub115150Z. Pagac331111113
M. Holub10
LSep 16 · 17:08M. Holub2.50711161T. Kypr1.5011511113WSep 16 · 16:30M. Holub2.38131411113T. Kypr1.53111112992LSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub2.10116111182Z. Pagac1.67131189113LSep 16 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.6711611113M. Holub2.10511691WSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570LSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113WSep 15 · 15:00M. Holub2.50414119123T. Kypr1.501112811102WSep 15 · 14:00L. Kern1.505380M. Holub2.501111113LSep 11 · 17:00D. Unzeitig2.00111311113M. Holub1.70815861LSep 11 · 16:00M. Holub2.2591111482T. Kypr1.57118811113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 17 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.255890M. Chalupa1.571111113WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380WSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac1.5361111113D. Unzeitig2.38117891WSep 17 · 15:30R. Skacelik2.2511881132Z. Pagac1.57711119113WSep 17 · 14:00Z. Pagac1.3091311113J. Schwan3.401111511WSep 16 · 17:29R. Hudeczek1.50119761Z. Pagac2.5091111113LSep 16 · 16:00R. Hudeczek1.6781111113Z. Pagac2.10119481WSep 16 · 15:00M. Holub2.10116111182Z. Pagac1.67131189113LSep 15 · 17:30M. Holub2.381111113Z. Pagac1.538570WSep 15 · 16:30M. Holub2.25117661Z. Pagac1.5781111113
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