TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131407
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711116411711––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 68.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 1–4 Ruslan Lazebnyi Oleksii Mitla has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lazebnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Lazebnyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1467 vs Lazebnyi 1586
Lazebnyi
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 40% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Mitla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 30% vs Lazebnyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla +1 · Lazebnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Lazebnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 2.63 / Lazebnyi 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131407
Mitla2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 122 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back25% 50 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 119
Lazebnyi1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 35 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it68% 25 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMitla1wins
AwayLazebnyi4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitlan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLazebnyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla1Lazebnyi4n = 5Lazebnyi took 4 of 5
S2Mitla2Lazebnyi3n = 5Lazebnyi took 3 of 5
S3Mitla2Lazebnyi3n = 5Lazebnyi took 3 of 5
S4Mitla0Lazebnyi3n = 3Lazebnyi took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricMitlaLazebnyiM − LBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match33.041.6−8.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 780 vs 61 / 12443.5%49.2%339 / 780 vs 61 / 124Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiMitla 2.63/Lazebnyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 1 · 23:15O. Mitla558111312113R. Lazebnyi50118111462
LAug 24 · 23:45O. Mitla341149101R. Lazebnyi4281111123
LAug 18 · 02:45O. Mitla123540R. Lazebnyi331111113
LAug 6 · 01:45O. Mitla3951111932R. Lazebnyi49119711113
LAug 1 · 15:05O. Mitla2591060R. Lazebnyi341112113
O. Mitla10
WSep 13 · 11:05A. Shypilov1.911187101O. Mitla1.8061111123LSep 13 · 10:05S. Kalenyk1.531111113O. Mitla2.388570LSep 13 · 08:35O. Napirko1.30911119113O. Mitla3.4011791122LSep 13 · 06:35V. Vlasenko1.8011119113O. Mitla1.91551161WSep 13 · 04:35V. Boyko1.73851111102O. Mitla2.00111188123WSep 12 · 18:05V. Boyko1.572570O. Mitla2.251111113LSep 12 · 17:05O. Mitla3.2510750O. Napirko1.33121163LSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:35O. Mitla1.839101141A. Shypilov1.8311129113LSep 12 · 12:35O. Mitla2.2061330S. Kalenyk1.61111583
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 15 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.38411571R. Lazebnyi1.5311911113LSep 14 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.57911117113R. Lazebnyi2.2511861122WSep 14 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi2.25951111113O. Bindas1.5711114682LSep 13 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.361111113R. Lazebnyi3.006390LSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461LSep 13 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.611114123R. Lazebnyi2.20612100LSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk1.801615113R. Lazebnyi1.91141350WSep 12 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi1.8091111113R. Haiseniuk1.91117751WSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 06:05V. Plishylo2.20481191R. Lazebnyi1.6111116113
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