TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121870
Played Sep 14Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118116711112
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:59 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 87 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 61.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 4–4 Ruslan Lazebnyi Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1699 vs Lazebnyi 1594
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 0% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 40% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -5 · Lazebnyi +1
Shcherbak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Shcherbak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.57 / Lazebnyi 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13121870
Shcherbak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 150 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it92% 86 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it77% 118 of 154
Lazebnyi2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeShcherbak4wins
AwayLazebnyi4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak66.7%4 of 6
AwayLazebnyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak6Lazebnyi2n = 8Shcherbak took 6 of 8
S2Shcherbak4Lazebnyi4n = 8split evenly
S3Shcherbak4Lazebnyi4n = 8split evenly
S4Shcherbak2Lazebnyi2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricShcherbakLazebnyiS − LBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match35.933.6+2.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 634 vs 61 / 12351.6%49.6%327 / 634 vs 61 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.57/Lazebnyi 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 7 · 17:25D. Shcherbak30671161R. Lazebnyi4011117113
WSep 5 · 08:05D. Shcherbak341211113R. Lazebnyi2110380
LSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak2812790R. Lazebnyi361411113
WAug 28 · 14:05D. Shcherbak371113133R. Lazebnyi28611110
WAug 22 · 06:35D. Shcherbak331111113R. Lazebnyi184950
LAug 21 · 14:05D. Shcherbak48119101172R. Lazebnyi48811126113
WAug 21 · 01:30D. Shcherbak43111110113R. Lazebnyi38981291
LAug 8 · 10:05D. Shcherbak34117881R. Lazebnyi4071111113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911113D. Shcherbak1.91311861LSep 13 · 23:00S. Rak1.731111113D. Shcherbak2.005890LSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143LSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 11 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.6711148762I. Romaniak2.102121111113WSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113LSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.006560WSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 14 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi2.25951111113O. Bindas1.5711114682LSep 13 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.361111113R. Lazebnyi3.006390LSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461LSep 13 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.611114123R. Lazebnyi2.20612100LSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk1.801615113R. Lazebnyi1.91141350WSep 12 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi1.8091111113R. Haiseniuk1.91117751WSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 06:05V. Plishylo2.20481191R. Lazebnyi1.6111116113LSep 12 · 05:05Y. Kravets1.91101111123R. Lazebnyi1.801272101WSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113
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