TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121837
Played Sep 13Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118119––––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Rak at 54.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 53–45 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 45 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-45 in 98
Rak
Correct
gap of 8 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1838 vs Shcherbak 1710
Rak
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 80% vs Shcherbak 20%
Rak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 80% vs Shcherbak 40%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +3 · Shcherbak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.73 / Shcherbak 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Rak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13121837
Rak1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 265 of 408
Up 2–0, closes it92% 127 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it82% 183 of 223
Shcherbak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 100 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back17% 24 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak6wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%5 of 5
AwayShcherbak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S2Rak8Shcherbak2n = 10Rak took 8 of 10
S3Rak6Shcherbak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Rak3Shcherbak2n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakShcherbakR − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.731.9+2.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime507 / 918 vs 327 / 63355.2%51.7%507 / 918 vs 327 / 633Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.73/Shcherbak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak4281211113D. Shcherbak331110481
LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak31811481D. Shcherbak4011711113
LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak3981141242D. Shcherbak511181110113
WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak3811511113D. Shcherbak31811481
WSep 1 · 04:55S. Rak351311113D. Shcherbak2011180
LAug 31 · 18:55S. Rak32811671D. Shcherbak4211911113
WAug 25 · 11:25S. Rak331111113D. Shcherbak229580
WAug 24 · 14:55S. Rak331111113D. Shcherbak177640
WAug 22 · 11:05S. Rak341112113D. Shcherbak2571080
LAug 20 · 20:00S. Rak3014970D. Shcherbak381611113
S. Rak10
WSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461WSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak3.4071111113O. Bindas1.30117681WSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492WSep 10 · 20:00S. Rak1.3051112113R. Haiseniuk3.401161071WSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060WSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143LSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 11 · 03:00D. Shcherbak1.6711148762I. Romaniak2.102121111113WSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113LSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.006560WSep 10 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk2.00101111482D. Shcherbak1.73129311113WSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113LSep 7 · 17:25R. Lazebnyi2.7511117113D. Shcherbak1.40671161LSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161
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