TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122201
Played Sep 13Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711117116118––
Oleh Bindas
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 78.5% is still 78.5%
Graded at full timeOleh Bindas to win
78.5%
78.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Oleh Bindas below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleh Bindas at 78.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 13–70 Oleh Bindas Serhii Rak has won 13 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:04What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Bindas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-70 in 83
Bindas
Wrong
gap of 57 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1811 vs Bindas 1794
Rak
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 80% vs Bindas 60%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Bindas 50%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Bindas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Bindas) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bindas form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 3.40 / Bindas 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Bindas)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13122201
Rak3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 35 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back9% 7 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Bindas1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 139 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it98% 78 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it81% 108 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak2wins
AwayBindas8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBindas leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBindas87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak2Bindas8n = 10Bindas took 8 of 10
S2Rak4Bindas6n = 10Bindas took 6 of 10
S3Rak2Bindas8n = 10Bindas took 8 of 10
S4Rak4Bindas2n = 6Rak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakBindasR − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.839.4−8.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakBindasBasisWin rate · lifetime504 / 915 vs 465 / 73055.1%63.7%504 / 915 vs 465 / 730Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BindasRak 3.40/Bindas 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.8%
Bindas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 5 · 20:00S. Rak4339111372O. Bindas521111811113
WJul 4 · 05:35S. Rak4512139113O. Bindas3910111171
WJul 3 · 14:05S. Rak4071111113O. Bindas33119941
LJun 30 · 05:35S. Rak197660O. Bindas331111113
LJun 29 · 15:05S. Rak3431141152O. Bindas49119117113
LJun 27 · 05:35S. Rak2510960O. Bindas341211113
LJun 22 · 14:25S. Rak34119951O. Bindas4291111113
LJun 13 · 11:35S. Rak25412271O. Bindas43111011113
LJun 12 · 13:35S. Rak2571170O. Bindas351113113
LJun 11 · 21:00S. Rak1853100O. Bindas341111123
S. Rak10
WSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 24:30S. Rak1.30101070N. Kovalchuk3.401212113WSep 10 · 23:00S. Rak1.6781211113D. Shcherbak2.101110481WSep 10 · 21:30S. Rak1.441161112113I. Romaniak2.6391171492WSep 10 · 20:00S. Rak1.3051112113R. Haiseniuk3.401161071WSep 8 · 11:25S. Rak1.301112113O. Hura3.4081060WSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870LSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461
O. Bindas10
WJul 6 · 02:30D. Pesternikov2.201146131O. Bindas1.6171111153LJul 6 · 01:30D. Shcherbak3.251111113O. Bindas1.339550WJul 6 · 24:00I. Kozachuk2.50119571O. Bindas1.5031111113LJul 5 · 22:00R. Haiseniuk5.50112811113O. Bindas1.1381111452WJul 5 · 20:00S. Rak3.7539111372O. Bindas1.251111811113LJul 4 · 11:05O. Bindas1.33910111232D. Shcherbak3.251112910113WJul 4 · 09:05I. Romaniak2.631091191O. Bindas1.4412115113WJul 4 · 08:05O. Bindas1.141112113R. Haiseniuk5.0081080LJul 4 · 07:05D. Pesternikov2.001111113O. Bindas1.739670LJul 4 · 05:35O. Bindas1.2010111171S. Rak4.3312139113
Upcoming Matches
S. Rak
O. Bindas
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.