TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131185
Played Sep 15Finished
Illia Hermakivskyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210311711911––
Andrii Hrabskyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeIllia Hermakivskyi to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Hermakivskyi above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Illia Hermakivskyi at 60.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Illia Hermakivskyi 1–0 Andrii Hrabskyi Andrii Hrabskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hermakivskyi 1693 vs Hrabskyi 1616
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hermakivskyi 80% vs Hrabskyi 20%
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hermakivskyi 50% vs Hrabskyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hermakivskyi +3 · Hrabskyi -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Hermakivskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrabskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHermakivskyi 1.44 / Hrabskyi 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Hermakivskyi)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131185
Hermakivskyi1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 10 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Hrabskyi2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 102 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHermakivskyi1wins
AwayHrabskyi0wins
Hermakivskyi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHermakivskyiHrabskyiHermakivskyi − HrabskyiBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.022.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHermakivskyiHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 51 vs 229 / 52747.1%43.5%24 / 51 vs 229 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HermakivskyiHermakivskyi 1.44/Hrabskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Hermakivskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrabskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMay 8 · 11:10I. Hermakivskyi331111113A. Hrabskyi226880
I. Hermakivskyi10
WSep 15 · 15:00I. Hermakivskyi1.8011101013113A. Lievshin1.91412121132WSep 15 · 13:30I. Hermakivskyi1.61111298123A. Yurkov2.206101111102WSep 15 · 12:00I. Hermakivskyi1.441211113O. Seliuchenko2.6310350LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113
A. Hrabskyi10
LSep 15 · 15:30A. Hrabskyi2.0013149101A. Yurkov1.73111611123LSep 15 · 14:30V. Marushchak1.5311159113A. Hrabskyi2.383131171LSep 15 · 13:00A. Hrabskyi3.50721312102A. Lievshin1.2811191110123WSep 14 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.44811991A. Hrabskyi2.6311611113LSep 14 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.2811119123A. Hrabskyi3.503911101LSep 14 · 14:40V. Voronenko2.25714412113A. Hrabskyi1.571112111062WSep 14 · 12:40A. Yurkov1.7388111132A. Hrabskyi2.00111189113WSep 14 · 10:40V. Marushchak1.5385111272A. Hrabskyi2.381111410113WSep 11 · 17:10A. Hrabskyi2.101111113O. Seliuchenko1.676690WSep 11 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.10871181A. Hrabskyi1.6711118113
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