TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131104
Played Sep 15Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131513911117––
Andrii Hrabskyi
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 80 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 60.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 32–38 Andrii Hrabskyi Vitalii S Marushchak has won 32 of their 70 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-38 in 70
Hrabskyi
Wrong
gap of 6 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1819 vs Hrabskyi 1634
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Hrabskyi 40%
Marushchak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 80% vs Hrabskyi 60%
Marushchak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak -1 · Hrabskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.53 / Hrabskyi 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Marushchak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131104
Marushchak1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 83 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it100% 48 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it84% 66 of 79
Hrabskyi2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 102 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak7wins
AwayHrabskyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak71.4%5 of 7
AwayHrabskyi33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak7Hrabskyi3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S2Marushchak7Hrabskyi3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S3Marushchak7Hrabskyi3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Marushchak6Hrabskyi2n = 8Marushchak took 6 of 8
S5Marushchak0Hrabskyi3n = 3Hrabskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakHrabskyiM − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.235.3+6.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 648 vs 229 / 52548.9%43.6%317 / 648 vs 229 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.53/Hrabskyi 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 10:40V. Marushchak4385111272A. Hrabskyi471111410113
WSep 11 · 13:10V. Marushchak331111113A. Hrabskyi236980
LSep 9 · 09:50V. Marushchak52157118112A. Hrabskyi541311611133
WSep 8 · 10:40V. Marushchak3741111113A. Hrabskyi28116561
WSep 7 · 16:40V. Marushchak4011117113A. Hrabskyi29581151
WSep 4 · 13:10V. Marushchak351111133A. Hrabskyi2485110
LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak52111311982A. Hrabskyi54915811113
WSep 1 · 18:00V. Marushchak44121110113A. Hrabskyi331071241
WAug 31 · 13:10V. Marushchak4591111143A. Hrabskyi301125121
WAug 25 · 18:00V. Marushchak4111118113A. Hrabskyi31961151
V. Marushchak10
LSep 15 · 12:30V. Marushchak1.83411561A. Yurkov1.8311511113WSep 14 · 16:40V. Marushchak1.4471111113V. Voronenko2.63115221WSep 14 · 15:10V. Marushchak1.501111113O. Kolbasenko2.505580WSep 14 · 13:40V. Marushchak1.9111117113A. Yurkov1.80941151WSep 14 · 12:10V. Marushchak1.6711611113A. Lievshin2.10611751LSep 14 · 10:40V. Marushchak1.5385111272A. Hrabskyi2.381111410113WSep 11 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.385610V. Marushchak1.531111113WSep 11 · 15:40V. Marushchak1.67115511113A. Lievshin2.1081111892WSep 11 · 14:40V. Marushchak1.611111113O. Seliuchenko2.208680WSep 11 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.531111113A. Hrabskyi2.386980
A. Hrabskyi10
LSep 15 · 15:30A. Hrabskyi2.0013149101A. Yurkov1.73111611123LSep 15 · 13:00A. Hrabskyi3.50721312102A. Lievshin1.2811191110123WSep 14 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.44811991A. Hrabskyi2.6311611113LSep 14 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.2811119123A. Hrabskyi3.503911101LSep 14 · 14:40V. Voronenko2.25714412113A. Hrabskyi1.571112111062WSep 14 · 12:40A. Yurkov1.7388111132A. Hrabskyi2.00111189113WSep 14 · 10:40V. Marushchak1.5385111272A. Hrabskyi2.381111410113WSep 11 · 17:10A. Hrabskyi2.101111113O. Seliuchenko1.676690WSep 11 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.10871181A. Hrabskyi1.6711118113LSep 11 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.531111113A. Hrabskyi2.386980
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