TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126648
Played Sep 14Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115118––––
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:37 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Oleksandr Kolbasenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 64.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 30–13 Oleksandr Kolbasenko Oleksandr Kolbasenko has won 13 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-13 in 43
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 17 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1832 vs Kolbasenko 1784
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Kolbasenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 90% vs Kolbasenko 90%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +2 · Kolbasenko +3
Kolbasenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.50 / Kolbasenko 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Marushchak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13126648
Marushchak1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite61% won 80 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it100% 47 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it83% 64 of 77
Kolbasenko2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak8wins
AwayKolbasenko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak100%7 of 7
AwayKolbasenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak7Kolbasenko3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S2Marushchak9Kolbasenko1n = 10Marushchak took 9 of 10
S3Marushchak7Kolbasenko3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Marushchak4Kolbasenko0n = 4Marushchak took 4 of 4
S5Marushchak1Kolbasenko2n = 3Kolbasenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakKolbasenkoM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.729.3+10.4per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakKolbasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime316 / 646 vs 176 / 32748.9%53.8%316 / 646 vs 176 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.50/Kolbasenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 15:10V. Marushchak331111113O. Kolbasenko185580
WSep 8 · 17:10V. Marushchak331111113O. Kolbasenko105140
LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak46811611102O. Kolbasenko48117117123
LAug 24 · 13:10V. Marushchak4491161172O. Kolbasenko44115116113
WAug 17 · 13:10V. Marushchak521091111113O. Kolbasenko3812112492
WAug 10 · 15:10V. Marushchak50111413123O. Kolbasenko4581215101
WAug 3 · 11:10V. Marushchak331111113O. Kolbasenko227870
WJul 6 · 17:10V. Marushchak361114113O. Kolbasenko2491230
WJun 30 · 14:30V. Marushchak371312123O. Kolbasenko311110100
WJun 26 · 15:40V. Marushchak331111113O. Kolbasenko136340
V. Marushchak10
WSep 14 · 13:40V. Marushchak1.9111117113A. Yurkov1.80941151WSep 14 · 12:10V. Marushchak1.6711611113A. Lievshin2.10611751LSep 14 · 10:40V. Marushchak1.5385111272A. Hrabskyi2.381111410113WSep 11 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.385610V. Marushchak1.531111113WSep 11 · 15:40V. Marushchak1.67115511113A. Lievshin2.1081111892WSep 11 · 14:40V. Marushchak1.611111113O. Seliuchenko2.208680WSep 11 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.531111113A. Hrabskyi2.386980WSep 11 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.911171110113A. Yurkov1.8061171262WSep 9 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.835850V. Marushchak1.831111113WSep 9 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.61111159113A. Lievshin2.2098111192
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 14 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko1.571111143A. Lievshin2.2588120WSep 14 · 13:10V. Voronenko2.7571141152O. Kolbasenko1.40117114113WSep 14 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.251111113A. Yurkov1.579760LSep 8 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko2.255140V. Marushchak1.571111113WSep 8 · 15:10A. Hrabskyi2.6311961382O. Kolbasenko1.444111111113WSep 8 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko2.25811611113A. Yurkov1.5711711552WSep 8 · 13:10V. Savoliuk2.3811661172O. Kolbasenko1.53611118113WSep 8 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko1.5791113123A. Lievshin2.2511511101WSep 7 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.30111111113P. Plakushchyi3.40137641WSep 7 · 15:10A. Hrabskyi2.50971271O. Kolbasenko1.50111110113
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